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ETX2011/ETX9520 QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR RISK ANALYSIS
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Semester 1, 2013
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ASSIGNMENT 1 - solutions
Total: 69 marks
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I recently asked many students about the number of Problems from AWZ that they have done so far. The answer was mostly “0”. If this is your answer, then I invite you to look at your perform- ance on Assignment 1. How well did this “0 Problems strategy” work for you on Assignment 1? Will this strategy deliver the same level of “success” for the remainder of the semester?

FEEDBACK FOR THIS ASSIGNMENT is provided by * these very detailed solutions (often, much more detailed than you needed to provide.) * tutors indicating areas where you erred and referring you to the solutions on Moodle. If you still have difficulties, then consult a staff member. (Moodle: “Staff & Consultation”.)

The marker may place square brackets [...] around a section of your work. That section may be correct, and may provide useful background information, but it made no contribution to the marks. You may find it useful to review how much time and word count you devoted to the sections which the marker surrounded by square brackets.

Marks are awarded for correctness, not simply for the amount written.
Beware of the inappropriate use of key words, eg, using variance (key word) instead of variation.
Although a lot of ink was put on paper, but it’s remarkable how rarely students answered the
questions which were asked and how rarely there was evidence of students basing their answers
on the unit’s content (eg, Lecture 2, Slide 28). 0 This assignment is based on the relevant unit material (lectures, tutorial exercises, computing exercises, prescribed reading from AWZ, prescribed Problems from AWZ, etc). We expect that students who have revised such material before attempting the assignment would obtain far better marks than those who have not revised the material. 1 You were asked to check your work to ensure that

* you completed all tasks and have answered the questions which have been asked. * you are succinct and to the point. Marks are awarded for correctness, not amount. * any StatTools/Excel output has carried out the tasks that you require. * any StatTools/Excel output is sensible and “user-friendly”. For example, if StatTools/Excel provided 8 decimal places, is it necessary to display 8 decimal places? * -------------------------------------------------

graphs, tables, etc are appropriately and informatively labelled, with chart titles, axis titles, legends, etc – as appropriate.
If you had difficulty with this assignment, you should * review your study techniques. (Summarise! Do Problems!) * look critically at the unit’s content in relation to the assignment’s questions. The assignment calls on concepts and techniques that are in the teaching material. Ask yourself why you have not practised and mastered these – prior to doing the assignment. * consult a staff member for advice.

Be wary of “copping out” and attributing your difficulties to “never been good at Maths”. What was the most complicated mathematical task in this assignment? How much did the assignment depend on possessing advanced mathematical skills and how much did it depend on studying and understanding the current semester’s content and on carefully reading and answering the questions which were asked?

Comments
* There was a remarkable degree of failure to follow instructions, eg, “Name your file in the format Surname-Initials_A1.docx, eg,...
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