Pakistan‟s wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2012/13 (May/April) is estimated at 23.0 million tons, down five percent relative to previous year‟s record harvest of 24.2 million tons. Wheat area harvested is witnessing a declining trend and has decreased by five percent during the last two years. Last year, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) procured 6.4 million tons of wheat from the local production, but has yet to announce a procurement target for this year‟s harvest. Trade sources estimate that Pakistan exported 1.5 million tons in MY 2010/11 and around 800,000 tons in MY 2011/12. Wheat exports in MY 2012/13 are forecasted at 300,000 tons mainly to Afghanistan. Pakistan‟s wheat prices are presently ten percent higher than the world prices and the GOP is considering a proposal for subsidizing wheat exports. During 2011, Pakistan experienced floods for the second year in a row. But unlike 2010 catastrophic floods, 2011 flooding was localized and restricted to lower Sindh and affected mostly rice and cotton crops in the flood affected areas. The rice crops in Punjab and upper Sindh remained unaffected. Pakistan‟s MY 2011/2012 rice production is now estimated at 6.5 million tons, thirty percent higher than the 2010/11 flood affected production level of 5.0 million tons. MY 2012/13 production is forecast at 6.8 million tons. Post‟s estimate of Pakistan‟s rice exports in MY 2010/11 is increased 28 percent to 3.2 million tons mainly due to the increased demand and better prices in the world market. Pakistan‟s rice exports also benefited from India‟s ban on rice exports, earlier in the marketing year. MY 2011/12 rice exports are estimated at 3.7 million tons, three percent higher than last year‟s export estimate. Rice exports in MY 2012/13 are projected at 4.0 million tons based on the expectation of a good harvest. Production:
Wheat is Pakistan‟s most important agricultural crop, which is grown by about 80 percent of all farmers, and covers close to 40 percent of the total cultivated area. Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2012/13 (May/April) is forecast at 23.0 million tons, down five percent from a record production level of 24.2 million tons. The forecasted production level is almost at par with the average of last five year‟s production. The projected decrease in production is due to a reduction in crop area, reduced availability and use of irrigation water and production inputs and low rainfall pattern. The 23.0 million ton production forecast represents potential production and assumes no further deterioration in the condition of the crop before harvest scheduled to begin in April. The Government of Pakistan raised the procurement price for the current year‟s crop from Rs.950 per 40 kg ($276/ton) to Rs.1050 per 40 Kg ($292/ton) but the farmer‟s organizations still maintain that the increase in the procurement price is not in line with the increase in input prices. The previous government procurement price for wheat was set during MY 2009/10 at Rs.950 per 40 kg ($276/ton), and was maintained at that level for the 2010 crop and for the 2011 procurement season (April-June). Area harvested is three percent lower than last year and is estimated at 8.66 million hectares. Wheat area harvested by province is shown in Table 1. Wheat area harvested is witnessing a declining trend and has decreased by five percent during the last two years. Government reluctance to raise the procurement price in accordance with the increase in input prices and recent trend of early sowing of cotton (February-March) are the main reasons for the reduction in the planted area for wheat. Wheat Area Harvested by Province
| Area (Million Hectares)
| Percentage of Total Area
The use of fertilizer during the 2011/12 wheat crop season registered a declining trend due to shortage of urea and high cost of phosphate...
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