Voting Behaviour
Voting Behaviour in the UK
The study of voting behaviour is made difficult because:
a) Voting is in secret b) Votes in the UK are pooled, and supposedly mixed up.
Yet political scientists have, since the War, and especially the 1960s been analysing voters and voting trends. Their weapons:
Political Polls • Opinion polls used since the 30s in the USA and the 40s in the UK give indication at all times, yet are only a predictor. • Exit Polls, adapted from marketing, are carried out by MORI or Gallop or ORC and other agencies. Exit polls are not infallible but are the best scientific 'snapshot' we can get. A number of models have been devised to look at how voters behave and to study the long term and short term changes in voting patterns.
Social Structures Model
Issues: [pic] Class and the de alignment of class loyalty. [pic] Occupational Class
Class has always been pre eminent in the study of voting patterns in the UK. Simply put: [pic] Working class families are basically Labour [pic] Middle class families are basically Conservative In the classic period, and even today the pattern is close to: [pic]
In this case very strong class identification would lead to a constant victory at the polls for Labour. Yet the Conservatives in the 1950s 1970s and the 1980s broke this mould. The reason lay in the conservative ability to attract significant numbers of working class voters. [pic]
The old adage of British politics was that about 1/3 of the working class voted for the Conservative Party, this allowed for the Conservatives holding power in the 1951-64 1970-74 periods during the period of consensus.
The working class vote was seen as essential for the party to achieve office.
Why?: Some said deference in that working class voters may have perceived the Tories as the 'natural rulers' and better equipped and educated to
The study of voting behaviour is made difficult because:
a) Voting is in secret b) Votes in the UK are pooled, and supposedly mixed up.
Yet political scientists have, since the War, and especially the 1960s been analysing voters and voting trends. Their weapons:
Political Polls • Opinion polls used since the 30s in the USA and the 40s in the UK give indication at all times, yet are only a predictor. • Exit Polls, adapted from marketing, are carried out by MORI or Gallop or ORC and other agencies. Exit polls are not infallible but are the best scientific 'snapshot' we can get. A number of models have been devised to look at how voters behave and to study the long term and short term changes in voting patterns.
Social Structures Model
Issues: [pic] Class and the de alignment of class loyalty. [pic] Occupational Class
Class has always been pre eminent in the study of voting patterns in the UK. Simply put: [pic] Working class families are basically Labour [pic] Middle class families are basically Conservative In the classic period, and even today the pattern is close to: [pic]
In this case very strong class identification would lead to a constant victory at the polls for Labour. Yet the Conservatives in the 1950s 1970s and the 1980s broke this mould. The reason lay in the conservative ability to attract significant numbers of working class voters. [pic]
The old adage of British politics was that about 1/3 of the working class voted for the Conservative Party, this allowed for the Conservatives holding power in the 1951-64 1970-74 periods during the period of consensus.
The working class vote was seen as essential for the party to achieve office.
Why?: Some said deference in that working class voters may have perceived the Tories as the 'natural rulers' and better equipped and educated to