Violent Crime Rates

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CONTENT
2 INTRODUCTION What’s the problem? 2 MODEL How are we going to approach it? 4 DATA Observations. 5 RESULTS What did we find? 6 EXTENSIONS Quadratic and interactive relationships. 7 CONCLUSION What does it all mean? In Depth Statistical Analysis

Violent Crime Rates Across the United States

Matt Ziglar October 14th, 2010

SANDY CAMEL CONSULTING

1

VIOLENT CRIME

FALL 2010

“No crime is so great as daring to excel.”
Winston Churchill

Introduction
Sandy Camel Consulting understands the need for investigating relationships between violent crime rates and the possible underlying causes. As a policy maker who wishes to promote rehabilitation (for nonviolent offenders) while effectively reducing the number of prisons and penitentiaries , it is essential to understand what possible factors influence violent crimes. Before you take steps to reduce prison funding and attempt to eliminate higher security facilities, it is absolutely necessary to ensure that the population within the surrounding city is not at risk for high violent crime rates. Before we proceed to statistical analysis, lets first take a brief look at exactly what we are dealing with. Violent crimes include offenses in which the offender uses or threatens the use of violence upon the victim. These crimes include homicide, rape, aggravated assault, robbery, and several others. You have asked us to analyze relationships between population characteristics and their respective state violent crime rates. With this information you can effectively decide

whether or not to aggressively pursue a cost cutting campaign targeting prisons throughout the United States.

Questions: What factors will influence violent crime rates? Are these factors present in large concentrations throughout city? Based on statistical evidence, is the surrounding city likely to have a high violent crime rate? Should this prison be a possible target for cut backs? Model Several components influence violent crime rates across the United States. We hope to identify trends and relationships between crime rates and these contributing factors in

SANDY CAMEL CONSULTING

2

VIOLENT CRIME

FALL 2010

these rates and population characteristics in order to predict crime rates in similar areas. If we are able to define a correlation between crime rates and population characteristics, we can effectively determine whether or not a particular city will be an ideal candidate for cost cutting measures. We expect violent crime rates to be strongly influenced by such factors as poverty, population density and presence of minority groups. Several other factors most definitely have an effect on violent crime rates, but for the purposes of this analysis we will only be able to examine a handful. In areas where poverty is abundant, individuals often find themselves with fewer options in life. These people are not only more likely to have adverse health issues, but are also more likely to lack education. These factors lead to a higher risk of delinquent behavior and ultimately higher violent crime rates. Also, as population density increases we believe that violent crime rates will rise. As cities develop and expand, human interactions tend to increase. These interactions create more opportunities for violent crime. We also expect greater percentages of minority groups to influence violent crime rates. These groups do not always have access to all opportunities offered by the community. Although social programs are in place to provide guidance to these groups, they do not always take advantage of such programs and often resort to gang membership and lives of crime. “One way to make sure crime doesn't pay would be to let the government run it.” Ronald Reagan

SANDY CAMEL CONSULTING

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VIOLENT CRIME

FALL 2010

Data
The data used for the analysis comes from the United Sates Census. Every state is represented in the data set. Crime statistics are reported...
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