1) What is the value of understanding probabilities? Give specific examples of applications.

Your response to the question is due by Thursday, October 22nd.

Probability theorems tell us that, from the relative frequency of all possible events, a particular outcome will occur some computed percentage of the time.

Gambling on the slot machines takes into account the probability that after X amount of non matching pulls, there is a pull with a big pay out. There are people who sit at slot machines all day waiting for that pay out. There are other people that watch people at slot machines. The watchers wait until the machine is vacated and jump on in hope of cashing in on the probability that the next pull is a win.

To use probability in slot machines, you have to understand the average payout of the casino. When casinos advertise that their slot machines pay out an average of 90 percent, the fine print they don't want you to read says that you lose 10 cents from each dollar you put into the machines in the long term. (In probability terms, this advertisement means that your expected winnings are minus 10 cents on every dollar you spend every time the money goes through the machines.)

Suppose you start with $100 and bet a dollar at a time, for example. After inserting all $100 into the slot, 100 pulls later you'll end up on average with $90, because you lose 10 percent of your money. If you run the $90 back through the machine, you'll end up with 90 percent of it back, which is 0.90 x 90 = $81. If you run that amount through in 81 pulls, you'll have $72.90 afterward (0.90 x 81 = 72.90). If you keep going for 44 rounds, on average, the money will be gone, unless you are lucky! Reference

...Understanding principles and values
It is very important that a person’s dignity is kept, so everyone has self-respect of themselves and that everyone has privacy at times when they need it as this makes them feel respected, independent and also in control. For example, even something simple like knocking on the door before entering the room is a sign that someone has privacy. This links to ‘Right to life’ because it is a concept that describes a belief that a human being has an essential right to live and not to be killed by another human being. It is an ethical dilemma about ‘Right to life’ situations which often involve health and social care workers. It is a workers responsibility to ensure that a patient has active support as they need support from those who care for them.
It is also important that a person is allowed to access information about them as this can help them make choices about what decisions they have. It then makes the person feel respected. For example, patients being able to access and read their health records can do this. This links to honesty because honesty is an ethical consideration and it is important that carers take into consideration the patients ethical values and principles. It is very important that honesty is expected and received when receiving health and social care services. Another important expectation is accurate recording and storage confidentiality. This is because lots of health and...

...PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
In the world of statistics, we are introduced to the concept of probability. On page 146 of our text, it defines probability as "a value between zero and one, inclusive, describing the relative possibility (chance or likelihood) an event will occur" (Lind, 2012). When we think about how much this concept pops up within our daily lives, we might be shocked to find the results. Oftentimes, we do not think in these terms, but imagine what the probability of us getting behind the wheel of a car twice a day, Monday through Friday, and arriving at work and home safely. Thankfully, the probability for me has been 'one'! This means that up to this point I have made it to work and returned home every day without getting into an accident. While probability might have one outcome with one set of circumstances, this does not mean it will always turn out that way. Using the same example, just because I have arrived at work every day without getting into an accident, this does not mean it will always be true. As I confess with my words, and pray it does stay the same, probability tells me there is room for a different outcome.
In business, we often look at the probability of success or financial gain when making a decision. There are several things to take into consideration such as the experiment, potential outcomes, and possible...

...weighted average of the possible values that the random variable can take. Unlike the sample mean of a group of observations, which gives each observation equal weight, the mean of a random variable weights each outcome xi according to its probability, pi. The mean also of a random variable provides the long-run average of the variable, or the expected average outcome over many observations.The common symbol for the mean (also known as the expectedvalue of X) is , formally defined by
Variance - The variance of a discrete random variable X measures the spread, or variability, of the distribution, and is defined by
The standard deviation is the square root of the variance.
Expectation - The expected value (or mean) of X, where X is a discrete random variable, is a weighted average of the possible values that X can take, each value being weighted according to the probability of that event occurring. The expected value of X is usually written as E(X) or m.
E(X) = S x P(X = x)
So the expected value is the sum of: [(each of the possible outcomes) × (the probability of the outcome occurring)].In more concrete terms, the expectation is what you would expect the outcome of an experiment to be on average.
2. Define the following;
a) Binomial Distribution - is the discrete probability distribution of the number of...

...CHAPTER 3: PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
3.1
RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Random variables is a quantity resulting from an experiment that, by chance, can assume different values. Examples of random variables are the number of defective light bulbs produced during the week and the heights of the students is a class. Two types of random variables are discrete random variables and continuous random variable.
3.2
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE
A random variable is called a discrete random variable if its set of posibble outcomes is countable. Probability distribution is a listing of all the outcomes of an experiment and the probability associated with each outcome. For example, the probability distribution of rolling a die once is as below: Outcome, x Probability, P(x) 1 1 6 2 1 6 3 1 6 4 1 6 5 1 6 6 1 6
The probability distribution for P(x) for a discrete random variable must satisfy two properties: 1. The values for the probabilities must be from 0 to 1; 0 ≤ ( ) ≤ 1 2. The sum for P(x) must be equal to 1; ∑ ( ) = 1
QMT200
3.2.1 FINDING MEAN AND VARIANCE Mean of X is also referred to as its “expected value”.
= ( ) Where: = ∑[ ( )]
( )=
= (
) − [ ( )]
(
)=
[
( )] = ( )
Example 1 An experiment consists of tossing two coins simultaneously. Write down the sample...

...“Stakeholders are always competing for a larger slice of the value added fund and satisfying all
stakeholders is difficult when the business is competing in mature product markets”. Critically
examine this statement and use contrasting examples.
The idea of stakeholders shall in this paper be defined as a “person, group, or organization that has direct or indirect stake in an organization because it can affect or be affected by the organization's actions, objectives, and policies.” (businessdictionary.com) They are essentially anyone with an interest in the company and may be divided into primary and secondary stakeholders. Primary stakeholders are people from directly within the firm such as employees, managers, shareholders, sub contractors, etc who may range for many miles across the country or even the world depending on how big the firm. Secondary stakeholders can be defined as anyone else who is affected by the firm such as people who live in the local area affected by traffic, pollution or an increase or decrease in business as a result of the firm. Different groups of these stakeholders compete against each other for the benefits of a company or firm which has reached the stage of a mature product market and, as a result, it is a challenge for this firm to ensure that all the stakeholders needs are met to a satisfactory level to ensure the safety and continuing growth of the company.
Mature products by definition have reached the equilibrium at a...

...countries in the world.
First of all, the combination of this individualism with the communist emphasis upon engineering and task skills has resulted in a nation with almost no sense of what the sociologist Ulrich Beck refers to as “the other”. People do not give much consideration to their group needs when making decisions. Witness the selfishness if the political class, or the greed of the national business elite, both on the back of great poverty and exploitation.
Too frequently do Romanians show little concern for pride in their own work. This leads the task element of leadership being measured in quantitative rather than qualitative terms. For example, people often ask themselves “Did I finish all my paperwork” rather than “How much value did I add by doing so?” . Journalists, for example, complain every day about their subjects (politicians) but they do not take personal responsibilities for their own actions. Whilst such complaints can be heard the world over, the scale of the problem is more widespread, deep rooted and damaging here than anywhere else.
Apart from this, there is another issue to present. Whenever something goes wrong in Romania, there is a strong tendency for people to consider themselves as victims of circumstance, which leads to two subsequent effects. First of all, they exhibit passivity in the face of gross public abuses. Secondly, they have the tendency to find outsiders to blame. This can be proved by a very good example: the...

...Charles Perrow also stresses the importance of the contingency theory within organisations. According to Perrow, organisations should adopt organic structures, based on the internal and external contingencies the company is faced with (Perrow, 1979). He states that business structures should be developed according to each individual organisation, rather than upon some universal principles or procedures (Perrow, 1979). Perrow strongly believes that complying with the contingency theory will result in the business achieving utmost success.
A number of issues in relation to management and the organisation have been raised, as a result of the agency and contingency theories. The agency theory was initially designed in order to assist in the understanding of the agent/principle relationship. Williamson (1985) identified opportunistic behaviour as a norm within organisations, stating that agency problems are more than likely to occur. He specified that managers often act opportunistically, and that trustworthiness is no longer common. Jensen and Meckling (1976), supported Williamson’s claim, they believe it is generally impossible that management will act in favour of the principle, as their main focus is to maximise their own wealth. Coca Cola proved this to be true in 2013, when Californian managers were sued for underpaying their employees in order to reduce expenses (D. Blackburn. 2013).
Jensen and Meckling (1976) also believe that the agency theory may also...

...Value chain and globalization
Introduction
The process of corporate life is always a sea change and sometimes there are high tides and sometimes are quiet times. Day to day companies are faced with new challenges, whether it be a consolidated organization or a small business just starting, always emerging issues that affect their behavior and their performance. Owing to the consequences of an impressive development of technology and globalization that we are living in this age.
Nowadays are faster changes, new challenges threaten seriously survival of organizations, new foreign competitors, mobilization of capitals, difficulties in retaining human capital and changing technologies are elements that require managers to be prepared for change and have ability to motivate employees in order to have continuous renewal. “Micro and small enterprise dominated industries have been both threatened and provided with advantages as a result of dynamic trends related to globalization” (Kula et al., 2006). Value chain is not only to implement new management models that ultimately prove to be only uncertain. However, management of change consists of take advantage of changes in business environment for the interest of the organization. That is why companies should not only be flexible, but also managers should develop a keen sense to anticipate change; therefore companies will be able to achieve to be at the forefront. According to Porter (1998)...

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