Three Quantitive Forecasting

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(1)Identify three qualitative forecasting methods and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. 1. Jury of Executive Panel: Executive panel forecasting uses the expertise of experienced upper managers from various aspects of the business to predict forecast. Executives from areas such as sales, financial, operations and production get together to predict trends, sales, and demand estimates for their particular area of expertise.

Advantages of Jury of executive include:
a. Seasoned professional provides their opinion
b.The responses provided are quick since executives are apart of the organization c.Vested interest in the company

Disadvantages include:
a.Group think (individual managers may go with the group instead of their own opinion) b.Tendency to go along with the #1 man/woman
c.
2. Consumer Survey: This forecasting is focused directly to the consumer. A series of questions are presented to the consumer about a particular product or service. I have been asked to participate in numerous consumer surveys about a product or service that I have used. The survey may used to decide if a product should be created, changed or discontinued. It consist of a sampling consumer to determine demand/spending trends. Advantages of Consumer Survey include:

a.Information comes directly from the source (the customer) b.Asks the customer their intention.
c.Interviews done in person, although they can be time consuming, allows the interviewer to see the respondents body languages. Can probe for deeper questions Disadvantages of consumer survey include:

a.Consumers may not be entirely truthful
b.Interviews that are done in person can be time consuming. c.Mailing and telephone, although they take less time and money, do not allow for probing questions 3. Delphi Method: Delphi method of forecasting was developed by RAND in 1950 with the original intent to focus on how technology affected warfare. The Delphi method is made up of a...
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