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THE GLOBAL ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK
1
SC Market Update March
2
Economic Outlook
3
2011 World GDP Growth Lags 2010 Growth
Real GDP Growth Rates, Percent
10 8 6 4 2 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Global Insight, Feb 2011
Asia World U.S. EU
-2 -4 -6 -8
4
Japan
Emerging Economies Outpace Established Economies
Real GDP Growth Rates, Percent Rates
10 8 6 4 2 0
CEB
20 00 20 02 20 07 20 09 20 11
Source: Global Insight, Feb 2011
Middle East/North Africa CIS
-2 -4 -6 -8
20 01
20 03
20 04
20 05
20 06
20 08
20 10
20 12
20 13
Western Europe
CIS = Commonwealth of Independent States (former Soviet Union) CEB = Central Europe and the Balkans
5
Electronics Production & Markets
6
2011 PC Y-o-Y Unit Growth in Low Double Digits
2011 PC U it G Unit Growth F th Forecasts t
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
iSuppli, Feb
10.9%
Ga t e , a Gartner, Mar
10.5% 0 5%
2011 Avg = 10.7%
7
Acer Shows Steep Drop in Market Share in 4Q10 PC Unit Market Share 25%
HP Dell Acer
20%
15%
Lenovo/IBM
10%
Toshiba Apple
5%
0%
1Q 05 3Q 05 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 3Q 09 1Q 10 3Q 10
8
2011 Cell Phone Unit Growth in Low Double Digits
2011 C ll Ph Cell Phone U i G Unit Growth F h Forecasts
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
CEA, Jan
11.0%
iSuppli, Feb
12.0%
2011 Avg = 11.5%
9
ZTE Emerges in 2010 World Cellular Phone Market Share
Manufacturer Sell-In, Source: iSuppli
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
3Q 08 1Q 09 3Q 07 3Q 09 1Q 10 1Q 08 1Q 07 3Q 10
Nokia Samsung Others LG Electronics ZTE Apple RIM Motorola Sony Ericsson Huawei
10
Semiconductor Market
11
2011 Forecasts Show SC (inc. Memory) Growth in Single Digits 2011 W ld SC M k t G World Market Growth Forecasts th F t
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
WSTS, Nov
4.5%
iSuppli, Feb
5.8%
VLSI Research, Mar
8.9%
Future Horizons, Mar
9.0%
2011 Avg = 7.1%
12
Market Outlook Summary – March 2011
•
Electronics – showing continued moderation with increasing demand.
• • • • • • • • • •
PC WW units expected to show double digit increase in 2011. Currently recovering from small correction. Tablets cannibalize some notebooks. Cell phone WW unit growth forecasted to increase in low double digits in 2011. Smartphone growth continues to be strong (25% unit growth forecasted for 2011). IT spending continuing to show momentum. Spending will shift from hardware to software in 2011. 2011
• •
Semiconductors – uneven growth across SC sub-products. Single digit growth expected in 2011. IC capacity utilization at 93%. 93% Some prices remain high due to undersupply, but DRAM pricing decreasing significantly.
Economy – emerging economies outpace advanced economies. EU/Japan/US economic growth remains positive in 2011. 2011 Emerging economies exhibiting growing consumption levels. Asia economic growth remains strong. Concern exists about overheating, especially with respect to real estate in China. p Concerns exist about debt levels of Euro economies (Portugal). 13
Semiconductor and Manufacturing Forecasts: 1Q11 Update
14
Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Forecast: 2011 Growth Up, Next Big Slowdown in 2013
15
Key Semiconductor Assumptions:
Reduction in PC unit growth countered by increase in smart phone and media tablet growth. PC production unit growth in 2011 is now expected to be 10%, 10% down from 16% in 4Q10 update update. Mobile phone production unit growth in 2011 is now expected to be 13%, up from 12% in 4Q10 update. Strong move to smart phones with higher semiconductor content. Media tablets production expected to exceed 67 million units in p p 2011, up from 55 million units in 4Q10 update. Foundry overcapacity expected to hit late 2011 and most of 2012 causing chip price reductions...
1
SC Market Update March
2
Economic Outlook
3
2011 World GDP Growth Lags 2010 Growth
Real GDP Growth Rates, Percent
10 8 6 4 2 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Global Insight, Feb 2011
Asia World U.S. EU
-2 -4 -6 -8
4
Japan
Emerging Economies Outpace Established Economies
Real GDP Growth Rates, Percent Rates
10 8 6 4 2 0
CEB
20 00 20 02 20 07 20 09 20 11
Source: Global Insight, Feb 2011
Middle East/North Africa CIS
-2 -4 -6 -8
20 01
20 03
20 04
20 05
20 06
20 08
20 10
20 12
20 13
Western Europe
CIS = Commonwealth of Independent States (former Soviet Union) CEB = Central Europe and the Balkans
5
Electronics Production & Markets
6
2011 PC Y-o-Y Unit Growth in Low Double Digits
2011 PC U it G Unit Growth F th Forecasts t
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
iSuppli, Feb
10.9%
Ga t e , a Gartner, Mar
10.5% 0 5%
2011 Avg = 10.7%
7
Acer Shows Steep Drop in Market Share in 4Q10 PC Unit Market Share 25%
HP Dell Acer
20%
15%
Lenovo/IBM
10%
Toshiba Apple
5%
0%
1Q 05 3Q 05 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 3Q 09 1Q 10 3Q 10
8
2011 Cell Phone Unit Growth in Low Double Digits
2011 C ll Ph Cell Phone U i G Unit Growth F h Forecasts
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
CEA, Jan
11.0%
iSuppli, Feb
12.0%
2011 Avg = 11.5%
9
ZTE Emerges in 2010 World Cellular Phone Market Share
Manufacturer Sell-In, Source: iSuppli
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
3Q 08 1Q 09 3Q 07 3Q 09 1Q 10 1Q 08 1Q 07 3Q 10
Nokia Samsung Others LG Electronics ZTE Apple RIM Motorola Sony Ericsson Huawei
10
Semiconductor Market
11
2011 Forecasts Show SC (inc. Memory) Growth in Single Digits 2011 W ld SC M k t G World Market Growth Forecasts th F t
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
WSTS, Nov
4.5%
iSuppli, Feb
5.8%
VLSI Research, Mar
8.9%
Future Horizons, Mar
9.0%
2011 Avg = 7.1%
12
Market Outlook Summary – March 2011
•
Electronics – showing continued moderation with increasing demand.
• • • • • • • • • •
PC WW units expected to show double digit increase in 2011. Currently recovering from small correction. Tablets cannibalize some notebooks. Cell phone WW unit growth forecasted to increase in low double digits in 2011. Smartphone growth continues to be strong (25% unit growth forecasted for 2011). IT spending continuing to show momentum. Spending will shift from hardware to software in 2011. 2011
• •
Semiconductors – uneven growth across SC sub-products. Single digit growth expected in 2011. IC capacity utilization at 93%. 93% Some prices remain high due to undersupply, but DRAM pricing decreasing significantly.
Economy – emerging economies outpace advanced economies. EU/Japan/US economic growth remains positive in 2011. 2011 Emerging economies exhibiting growing consumption levels. Asia economic growth remains strong. Concern exists about overheating, especially with respect to real estate in China. p Concerns exist about debt levels of Euro economies (Portugal). 13
Semiconductor and Manufacturing Forecasts: 1Q11 Update
14
Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Forecast: 2011 Growth Up, Next Big Slowdown in 2013
15
Key Semiconductor Assumptions:
Reduction in PC unit growth countered by increase in smart phone and media tablet growth. PC production unit growth in 2011 is now expected to be 10%, 10% down from 16% in 4Q10 update update. Mobile phone production unit growth in 2011 is now expected to be 13%, up from 12% in 4Q10 update. Strong move to smart phones with higher semiconductor content. Media tablets production expected to exceed 67 million units in p p 2011, up from 55 million units in 4Q10 update. Foundry overcapacity expected to hit late 2011 and most of 2012 causing chip price reductions...
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