The Civil War in Syria

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However any military action against the Syrian government will have significant political risks for many countries in the Middle East. Syria is considered a puppet-state to Iran, so any action against Syria will put Iran on the defensive. Iran may strike back at Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain or the Emirates for their perceived support of military action against Syria. These are all Sunni Muslim-ruled nations with large oil reserves, while Iran is mostly Shiite Muslims. This Iranian retaliation will undoubtedly include attacks on these nations’ oil fields, and production and distribution centers – trying to hurt them in a powerful financial way.

Many people in the intelligence community say the fighting in Syria has ramifications far beyond that nation’s borders and they could spill into the oil market very quickly. Syria is Iran’s main ally and they believe if Syria falls Iran will increase the speed of its nuclear program.

Ali Nader is a senior international policy analyst focusing on Iran for the Rand Corporation, he said, “Bashar Al Assad's fall will increase Iran's sense of isolation and encirclement.”
Nader added, “Assad's fall may compel Iranian leaders to become more intransigent on the nuclear program motivating them to pursue a nuclear bomb with greater speed.”
Jonathan Rynhold is a political science professor at Israel’s Bar Ilan University. “Assad’s fall in Syria will add pressure on Iran but they are already progressing on the nuclear front as fast as they can go,” Rynhold said.

Many oil watchers believe if Iran is backed into a corner it will act. Some say that could mean Iran becoming more aggressive on the nuclear front, possibly even testing a nuclear device before any sort of potential outside attack could prevent a test.

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-806784
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48227346/Why_Syria_s_Civil_War_May_Spill_Over_Into_Oil_Market
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