The Analysis of the Factors Which Influence the Rate of Unemployment

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TRANSILVANIA UNIVERSITY
FACULTY OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES
BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
YEAR II

ECONOMETRICS
The analysis of the factors which influence the rate of unemployment

Sacarea Alexandra Sabrina

Table of contents

1.Objectives of project

2.Stages of analysis
2.1.Data collection
2.2.Estimation of parameters

3.Graphical representation

4.Statistical tests
4.1.Fisher Test
4.2.Student Test

5.Durbin-Wtason Test

6.Chow test

7. Forecast model using multiple regression

8.Conclusions

1.Objectives of project

The main objective of the project is to analize the influence of the following variables, X1-the number of unemployed people, X2-the active population, X3-the investments, X4-number of retired persons because of invalidity, X5-number of persons who moved from the rural to the urban environment and X6-the imports, on the main variable Y which is the unemployment rate. The following analysis contains theoretical notions regarding the rate of unemployment rate as a report between the number of unemployed workers (who are registered at the agencies of work force) and the civil active population (unemployed +active occupied population, defined according to the methology of the labour force balance) , expressed in procents.

As defined by the International Labour Organization, "unemployed workers" are those who are currently not working but are willing and able to work for pay, currently available to work, and have actively searched for work According to the criterion of the International Office of Labour (Biroul International al Muncii), unemployed persons must have the age of 16 or more and must simultaneously fulfill these conditions: -do not have a workplace and do not carry in any activity with the purpose of obtaining an income -are searching for a workplace and have been taking measures in this way for the last 4 weeks -are available to start working in the following 15 days, if there is a job The registered unemployed workers represent the persons who are able to work, but cannot be situated due to the lack of available work places and who are also registered to the territorial agencies in order to fill the labor force. (Legea nr. 1/1991 republicată în anul 1994 şi completată prin ordonanţa Guvernului nr. 47/1997)

The active population ,economically speaking, contains all persons of 16 and over 16 which provides work for goods production ;includes also the occupied population and the unemployed persons.

2.Stages of analysis
2.1.Data collection

The analysis will be effectuated on a period of 15 years (1990-1994), from which the information has been selected form the Yearbook of Statistics of Italy-The labour force.The data source is constituted by the Work force balance for the information regarding the occupied civil population on national economical activities, on forms of property and counties.The quarterly inquiry on the household work force, concerning the occupied population on age, level of training, groups of occupations, professional status and on activities form the national economy;The national Agency of Work force for the data regarding the number of registered unemployed persons, on age categories, the duration of unemployment and the number of included persons in qualification and requalification training courses.

2.2.Estimation of parameters

The collected data is presented in the following tabel as a model, constituted on the basis of function: Yt=a0+a1*Xt+a2*X2t+a3*X3t+a4*X4t+a5*X5t+a6*X6t+εt, where in our case: • t=1,15;

• Y=unemployment rate (variable for explain); • X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, X6=explanatory variable; • a0, a1, a2, a3, a4, a5, a6=model parametres; • ε=error of...
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