term structure of interest rates

The term structure of interest rates, also known as the yield curve, is a very common bond valuation method. Constructed by graphing the yield to maturities and the respective maturity dates of benchmark fixed-income securities, the yield curve is a measure of the market's expectations of future interest rates given the current market conditions. Treasuries, issued by the federal government, are considered risk-free, and as such, their yields are often used as the benchmarks for fixed-income securities with the same maturities. The term structure of interest rates is graphed as though each coupon payment of a noncallable fixed-income security were a zero-coupon bond that "matures" on the coupon payment date. The exact shape of the curve can be different at any point in time. So if the normal yield curve changes shape, it tells investors that they may need to change their outlook on the economy.

There are three main patterns created by the term structure of interest rates:

1) Normal Yield Curve: As its name indicates, this is the yield curve shape that forms during normal market conditions, wherein investors generally believe that there will be no significant changes in the economy, such as in inflation rates, and that the economy will continue to grow at a normal rate. During such conditions, investors expect higher yields for fixed income instruments with long-term maturities that occur farther into the future. In other words, the market expects long-term fixed income securities to offer higher yields than short-term fixed income securities. This is a normal expectation of the market because short-term instruments generally hold less risk than long-term instruments; the farther into the future the bond's maturity, the more time and, therefore, uncertainty the bondholder faces before being paid back the principal. To invest in one instrument for a longer period of time, an investor needs to be compensated for undertaking the additional risk.

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