Supply and Demand Projection of Wheat

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  • Topic: Forecasting, Time series, Exponential smoothing
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  • Published : October 22, 2010
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SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTION OF WHEAT IN PUNJAB FOR THE YEAR 2010-2011 1-Dr.Hazoor Muhammad Sabir* 2- Safdar Husain Tahir**


Wheat is the staple food of people in Pakistan. Depending upon rapidly growing population, the wheat requirements vary from time to time that creates complications for policy makers. The main objective of the study was to forecast as accurately as possible, the population and wheat requirements in Punjab province for the year 2010-11. For this purpose a time series data regarding population, wheat production and wheat requirements were collected from the National statistics. An exponential smoothing model specific for forecasting was applied. Different weights ranging from 0.3-0.9 were given to the past data to get the precise estimates. Results revealed that a quantity of 7.55 million tons wheat will be surplus in Punjab as the total requirements would be 12.45 million tons for the population of 95.78 million projected for the year 2010-11.

Key words: Population, production, requirement, forecasting and Punjab (Pakistan)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Economist Ayub Agri. Research Institute. Faisalabad. (Corresponding author) ** Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Business Finance, MAJU. Islamabad.


Pakistan is the 9th largest wheat producer, accounting for 3.04 % of the world's wheat production from an area of 3.57 % of the world (FAO 2009) Wheat is the leading food grain of Pakistan and being staple diet of the people. It occupies a central position in formulation of agricultural policies. It contributes 14.4 percent to the value added in agriculture and 3.1 percent to GDP (Eco Survey 2009-10)

Planning is fundamentally a process of thinking ahead and anticipating difficulties through rational actions based on experience, prudence and imagination to conduct the course of development so as to realize the pet and professed goals. The long-term supply projections of agricultural commodities prove helpful for formulating government policies with regard to production, consumption, prices, procurement, marketing, storage and domestic and foreign trade. There is no second opinion on the importance of Agriculture for its being key numerator in the sustainable growth and development of the economy of Pakistan. It is a vital sector, providing food to the fast-growing population of the country.

Punjab excelled in wheat production last year. The officials concerned conceded that in southern Punjab crop output averaged between 30 and 60 mounds per acre. Punjab is the main wheat producer in Pakistan. During 2008-09, total wheat production in Pakistan was 24032.90 thousand tons and 76.0 % of the total (18240 thousand tons) were produced in Punjab on a total of 75 % (16892.93 thousand acres) of the total National wheat-growing area (22353.57 thousand acres). The average yield in Punjab was 27.26 mounds per acre which was 1.41 % higher than the Pakistan average 26.88 mds per acre. During 2009-10, the irrigated areas of Punjab (15650 thousand acres) produced 17817.32 thousand tons of wheat, and in the unirrigated area (1385 thousand acres) produced 422.99 thousand tons. The average yield in irrigated areas was 30.50 mds per acre or 272 % higher than the 8.18 mds per acre yield in unirrigated areas. Thus data statistics indicated that Punjab province has been a major wheat producing province and had great potential to feed the rapidly growing population.

1.1 Significance Of Study.

Wheat is the major cereal crop in Pakistan and was grown on 17035 million acres (2009-10) in Punjab, Pakistan. More than eighty percent of the people consume wheat as their necessary food ingredient. More than forty percent of the cropped area falls under wheat every year. Whether domestically produced wheat on this area fulfills the requirements of Punjab population? Either some proportion of the total area under wheat...
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