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Projected Total Sales of Sundance Direct Sales Calamba Branch in 2011| A Term Paper for MGT 121|
Sandy Rose C. Nombrefia|

Projected Total Sales of Sundance Direct Sales
Calamba Branch in 2011
Introduction
Billboards, signage and eye-catching advertisement paraphernalia of different direct selling companies are sprouting everywhere, either local or international. Many companies established names and compete to prolong their standing in the business world. Defined in businessdictionary.com, direct selling is a face to face presentation, demonstration, and sale of products or services, usually at the home or office of a prospect by the independent direct sales representatives. Direct Selling contributes greatly on the economic development of the country; it manifests the Filipino spirit of enterprise and self-reliance. This industry gains greater popularity today than its early years. One of the popular direct selling companies in the Philippines is Sundance Direct Sales (Footworks Marketing Corporation). It was established on August 1999. Before they came with the business’ name, they first thought of fancy Italian names but they had decided on an original and easily remembered name- SUNDANCE. It was originated from the Hollywood movie, Butch Casedy and the Sundance Kid. Mr. Peter Yu is the managing director of Sundance Direct Sales.

It is a fashion clothing and shoe retailing company with wide expertise in manufacturing industry. This company is engaged in selling of clothes, shoes, bags, cosmetics, accessories and infant and children lines. Currently, it is partnered with Maybelline New York, Afficionado and I2I eyewear. In its 12 successful years of existence, it has approximately 500,000 dealers and continuously increasing. It produced 16 branches and 400 local outlets nationwide.

The mission of Sundance Direct Sales in helping fellowmen is to bring standard of excellence to all parts of the world. In lieu of their mission, they have reached and served international countries such as HongKong, Dubai, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Abu Dhabi, Singapore.

Sundance Direct Sales is an industry that continuously progressing, competing and creating new styles of fashion, awarding them as the Best Direct Selling brand of Apparel.

Methodology

Many business organizations used tools or techniques, like quantitative forecasting, that helped them determine the possible result of the business operation in the future. Quantitative forecasting technique bases its forecast from past data. This tool helps the manager or the decision maker to accomplish their organizational goals. Specifically, if a company has the record of its past 30-year sales, then it can project the sales for the next year and this may help him to determine the inventory levels, scheduling of production and the like. However either quantitatively or qualitatively, forecasting is not 100% certain; it has uncertainties so we need to measure the accuracy of the forecast. Forecast accuracy can be measure by MAD (mean absolute deviation) MSE (mean square error) and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error); the best model depends on the measure. The goal of this study is to project the total sales for one of the Sundance branches –Calamba -2011 so that the branch manager can have preparations in their inventory levels.

In order to get the projected total sales of Sundance Direct Sales Calamba branch in 2011, time-series regression and smoothing linear trends were used. Time-series regression is the process of estimating the relationship between two variables- in our case time and sales per month. Smoothing linear trends is just the same with simple smoothing however the intercept and the slope of the trend line are continually adjusted in each period. Two methods were used for comparative purposes. The data were also tested for occurrence of seasonality. MAD was used to evaluate the forecast accuracy since most of the errors were too large. It weighted...
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