Statistics
Department of Decision Sciences
Rational Decision Making
Only study guide for
DSC2602
University of South Africa
Pretoria
c 2010 University of South Africa
All rights reserved.
Printed and published by the
University of South Africa,
Muckleneuk, Pretoria.
DSC2602/1/2011
Cover: Eastern Transvaal, Lowveld (1928) J. H. Pierneef
J. H. Pierneef is one of South Africa’s best known artists.
Permission for the use of this work was kindly granted by the Schweickerdt family.
The tree structure is a recurring theme in various branches of the decision sciences.
Preface
Everyday life is full of decisions. What should I wear today? What should I eat? Should I buy the red or blue shirt? Should I buy a specific house or buy a piece of land? What is the shortest route from my house to work? . . . And many more.
Some of these decisions can be made without thinking or by guesswork. Some can be solved by reasoning or emotions. Some are a bit more difficult and may need additional information.
People have been using mathematical tools to aid decision making for decades. During World
War II many techniques were developed to assists the military in decision making. These developments were so successful that after World War II many companies used similar techniques in managerial decision making and planning.
The decision making task of modern management is more demanding and more important than ever. Many organisations employ operations research or management science personnel or consultants to apply the principles of scientific management to problems and decision making.
In this module we focus on a number of useful models and techniques that can be used in the decision making process. Two important themes run through the study guide: data analysis and decision making techniques.
Firstly we look at data analysis. This approach starts with data that are manipulated or processed into information that is valuable to decision making. The processing
Rational Decision Making
Only study guide for
DSC2602
University of South Africa
Pretoria
c 2010 University of South Africa
All rights reserved.
Printed and published by the
University of South Africa,
Muckleneuk, Pretoria.
DSC2602/1/2011
Cover: Eastern Transvaal, Lowveld (1928) J. H. Pierneef
J. H. Pierneef is one of South Africa’s best known artists.
Permission for the use of this work was kindly granted by the Schweickerdt family.
The tree structure is a recurring theme in various branches of the decision sciences.
Preface
Everyday life is full of decisions. What should I wear today? What should I eat? Should I buy the red or blue shirt? Should I buy a specific house or buy a piece of land? What is the shortest route from my house to work? . . . And many more.
Some of these decisions can be made without thinking or by guesswork. Some can be solved by reasoning or emotions. Some are a bit more difficult and may need additional information.
People have been using mathematical tools to aid decision making for decades. During World
War II many techniques were developed to assists the military in decision making. These developments were so successful that after World War II many companies used similar techniques in managerial decision making and planning.
The decision making task of modern management is more demanding and more important than ever. Many organisations employ operations research or management science personnel or consultants to apply the principles of scientific management to problems and decision making.
In this module we focus on a number of useful models and techniques that can be used in the decision making process. Two important themes run through the study guide: data analysis and decision making techniques.
Firstly we look at data analysis. This approach starts with data that are manipulated or processed into information that is valuable to decision making. The processing
Bibliography: 1 Thomas M. Cook and Robert A. Russell. Introduction to Management Sciences. Prentice-Hall Inc, fourth edition, 1989. 2 Barry Render, Ralph M. Stair Jr., Michael E. Hanna. Quantitative Analysis for Management. Prentice Hall, eighth edition, 2003. 3 Kamlesh, Mathur, Daniel Solow. Management Science - The Art of Decision Making. Prentice Hall, 1994. 4 Jon Curwin and Roger Slater. Quantitative Methods for Business Decisions. Thomson, fifth edition, 2002. 5 Steyn, Smit, Du Toit, Strasheim. Modern Statistics in Practice. Van Schaik Publishers, 1994. 295