Share Price Fluctuations

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ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT

For a market of your choice, keep track of the spot or share price fluctuations during a period of at least two years. Prepare a report of approximately 3000 words, for each market, discussing in detail the multiple forces (interesting developments) responsible for the trends.

Tuesday 24 May 2011

Table of Contents

Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………...Page 3

The Global Environment…………………………………………………………………Page 5

The South African Environment………………………………………………………...Page 7

SAB Miller Analysis……………………………………………………………………..Page 13

Rainbow Chicken Analysis………………………………………………………….....Page 18

Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………..Page 22

Executive Summary

In analysing the consumer market, we have chosen the share prices of two JSE listed companies, namely SABMiller and Rainbow Chicken which belong to the beverages and food producer’s sub-sectors respectively. Our two-year analysis is for the period March 2009 to May 2011. We will explore how Rainbow Chicken fared relative to its nearest competitor – Astral Foods. SABMiller allowed us to expand our thinking and methodology as the company also has a dual-listing on the London Stock Exchange. Its three closest competitors Heineken, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Carlsberg Breweries have foreign listings.

It stands to reason, therefore, that we begin our assignment with an overview of the global context in which both companies operated in the period under review. The aftermath of the recession and changes in global economic indicators like the ZAR:USD exchange rate and the price of Brent crude oil will be examined. What we found particularly interesting was the resilience of both company’s share prices in the challenging global economic climate. We mention the factors that insulated each share from the global downturn. We then turn our attention to South Africa’s economic environment and examine the extent to which the foregoing global factors impacted on South Africa’s macroeconomic policy landscape. The two variables that we pay particular attention to are the local repo and CPI rates. We address the extent to which changes to these local variables impacted on the share prices of SABMiller and Rainbow Chicken.

As mentioned in the first paragraph, our analyses consider the industries in which both companies operate by comparing their share prices with those of their nearest competitors. Our company analyses focus on internal considerations and the strategic objectives detailed in SABMiller’s and Rainbow’s annual reports for the 2009 and 2010 financial year ends. In our analyses of each company’s share price, we remain mindful of the fact that, although not directly responsible for the share’s daily performance, the objectives and calibre of management nevertheless impact on the share price. We conclude each analysis with a justifiable prediction of the expected trajectory of each company’s share price.

The concentric eclipses in the diagram below depict the logical progression of our assignment’s structure, beginning with the outer-most eclipse. The diagram also shows the inter-relatedness of each eclipse relative to the other and how it is impossible to isolate the effects of one from the other. This reinforces the aphorism that: “in Economics everything is related to everything else; and usually in more ways than one.”

The Global Environment

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Source: www.eia.doe.gov

The price of Brent crude oil has been steady at an average level of $70 to $80 a barrel until November 2010. Since December 2010, the oil price has been rising, reaching a peak of $120 / barrel in April 2011. This has been partly due to uprisings in the Arab world, which holds the majority of global oil reserves. The oil price affects domestic inflation as fuel and energy are a major component of South Africa’s CPI basket. The price of petrol, which is based on oil prices, also raises logistical costs. SABMiller and Rainbow paid more to...
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