Mathew Joseph Nirupama Soundararajan Manisha Gupta Sanghamitra Sahu
INDIAN COUNCIL FOR RESEARCH ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS
Foreword The retail sector is expanding and modernizing rapidly in line with India’s economic growth. It offers significant employment opportunities in all urban areas. This study, the second undertaken by ICRIER on the retail industry, attempts to rigorously analyse the impact of organized retailing on different segments of the economy. No distinction has been made between foreign and domestic players, in analyzing the impact of the increasing trend of large corporates entering the retail trade in the country. The findings of this study are based on the largest ever survey of unorganized retailers (the so-called “mom and pop stores”), consumers, farmers, intermediaries, manufacturers, and organized retailers. In addition, an extensive review of international experience, particularly of emerging countries of relevance to India, has also been carried out as part of the study. The study estimates that the total retail business in India will grow at 13 per cent annually from US$ 322 billion in 2006-07 to US$ 590 billion in 2011-12. The unorganized retail sector is expected to grow at approximately 10 per cent per annum with sales rising from US$ 309 billion in 2006-07 to US$ 496 billion. Organized retail, which constituted a low four per cent of total retail in 2006-07, is estimated to grow at 45-50 per cent per annum and attain a 16 per cent share of total retail by 2011-12. In short, both unorganized and organized retail are bound not only to coexist but also achieve rapid and sustained growth in the coming years. This is clearly not a case of a zero sum game as both organized and unorganized retail will see a massive scaling up of their activities. In fact, the retail sector, left entirely in the unorganized and informal segment of the economy, could well... [continues]
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