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Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study

DELIVERING TOMORROW
Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study

PUBLISHER Deutsche Post AG, Headquarters represented by Dr. Christof E. Ehrhart, Executive Vice President Corporate Communications 53250 Bonn, Germany PROJECT DIRECTOR Dr. Jan Dietrich Müller, Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AG PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND EDITORIAL OFFICE Johannes Oppolzer, Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AG ART DIRECTION Kai Kullen SCENARIO PROCESS AND REALIZATION Z_punkt The Foresight Company, Cologne

COVER IMAGE Adrian Frutiger EDITORIAL SUPPORT Keir Bonine, Communication Resources bvba TRANSLATION Anke Bryson PRINT COORDINATION Manfred T. Rehberg, Williams Lea GmbH 1. Edition February 2012 © Deutsche Post AG, Bonn, Germany ISBN 978-3-920269-54-2

“To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect.”
OscarWilde,18541900 Irishpoet,novelist,andplaywright

Contents

Impressions Introduction ExecutiveSummary 1 Inception On Looking into the Futures byProfessorJamesAllenDator Winning in an Uncertain Future Through Scenario Planning byPeterSchwartz 2 Imagination The Project The Futures Scenario 1: Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse Scenario 2: Mega-efficiency in Megacities Scenario 3: Customized Lifestyles Scenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism Scenario 5: Global Resilience – Local Adaptation The Methodology: Taking a Closer Look The Experts

8 10 12 22 22

27

34 34 36 36 50 66 80 92 104 112

3 ssues I The Future of Secure Communications in the Age of the Internet byJürgenGerdes Beyond Double-Digit Growth: Perspectives for Sustained Prosperity in Asia byJerryHsu Why I Believe in a Bright Future for Africa byAmadouDiallo Vulnerability and Security in the 21st Century byProfessorHerfriedMünkler The Future Belongs to Renewable Energies InterviewwithProfessorKlausTöpfer

114

114

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4 Implications Mapping a Decarbonization Path for Logistics byProfessorAlanMcKinnon Towards a More Robust Global Trade Environment byRogerCrook Catering to Our Customers’ Future Needs byRobSiegers The Logistics of the Future: Revolutionary Changes or the Development of Trusted Solutions? byPetraKiwittandSteffenFrankenberg

144 144

150

155

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5 Intelligence Recrafting Scenario Practice to Achieve Robust Long-Term Decisions byRobertLempertandJohannaZmud Corporate Strategy in the Face of Volatility byJanThidoKarlshausandMarkusReckling

166

166

173

Acknowledgements

180

7

Impressions
FiveVisionsoftheFuture
Pollution Materialism Resource exploitation Climate change Rising incomes

Consumption

“Whentheworldis drivenbymaterialism andfacesfrequent naturaldisasters”

1

Free trade Arctic mining

Unsustainable growth Natural disasters

Asia Megacities

Urban congestion

Supergrid Urban Rent-and-use Technology Robotics Urban-rural divide City logistics 3D printing Global hubs

Automation

“Whenmegacities becomeepicentersof greengrowth”

2

Efficiency

FabShops Home fabbing Digital piracy

Dematerialization

“Whenindividualization becomespervasiveand 3Dprintingdominates manufacturingand households”

3

Affluence Consumption Creativity Regional trade Progress

Individualization Prosumer Decentralized Customized Internet security

Unique lifestyles

8

Delivering Tomorrow

Nationalism Resource scarcity Contraction Nationalized logistics Protectionist Productivity decline

“Whenglobalization isreversedand protectionistbarriers areraised”

Security

4

Ageing societies

Fragmentation

Customs delays

Sustainability Wealth

Stagnation

Regional blocs International conflict Reuse and repair

Green growth Collaboration

Virtual reality

Regional trade Interconnected Vulnerability Climate change...
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