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Industries in 2012
A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit

www.eiu.com/industry

Industries in 2012

Foreword: Industries in 2012

W

ith disappointing economic growth in the US and the prospect of outright collapse in the euro zone, it is hardly surprising that a majority of the 900 business executives we surveyed recently were pessimistic when we asked their outlook for the global economy in 2012. These survey results are discussed in detail in this report, along with our industry experts’ perspectives on likely areas for greater optimism. One inarguable bright spot will be continued demand growth in developing markets. Emerging economies, especially in Asia, will take an ever-increasing share of automotive and consumer goods manufacturing, and back-office support services for the financial services industry. The corresponding rise in household income will bring a wide array of consumer products within reach, from luxury handbags, clothing and jewellery to electronic devices like smartphones and tablets. At the same time, higher wealth levels will result in greater demand for increasingly sophisticated financial products, including insurance and asset management services. Reflecting these trends, 2012 will see the Economist Intelligence Unit’s product offering expand to provide clients with more local, data-driven insights on these opportunity areas. On behalf of the EIU’s team of industry specialists, I wish you a safe and prosperous 2012. As ever, please feel free to contact us with any questions, concerns or suggestions. Elizabeth Bramson-Boudreau Director, Industry Publishing, Analysis and Data elizabethbramson-boudreau@economist.com

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© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2011

Industries in 2012

Contents
Introduction: The view from the microscope is better than from the telescope Automotive: Less than a complete set of wheels Consumer goods and retail: Glimpses of opportunity amid gloomy prospects Energy: The uncertain and the unconventional Financial services: Dark before the dawn Healthcare and pharmaceuticals: A looming patent cliff, but rising spending too Telecoms and technology: Rising opportunities, falling prices 2012 calendar of events 3 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

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© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2011

Industries in 2012

Introduction: The view from the microscope is better than from the telescope Steven Leslie, Lead Analyst, Financial Services
Business executives are sour about 2012. However, they are much more negative about the prospects for the global economy than for their own industries, and especially for their own companies. These are the headline findings from a global survey of more than 900 corporate decisionmakers about their expectations for 2012. First, the bad news. Respondents are overwhelmingly pessimistic about the global economy in 2012: 55% say conditions will be worse than in 2011, with just 12% expecting prospects to improve. (The remainder either expects conditions to remain the same or declined to hazard a guess.) Therefore, the balance—the positive views minus the negative ones—is a dispiriting -4 percentage points. This follows the general erosion of business confidence during most of 2011. The Economist/ FT Global Business Barometer, a quarterly survey of executives, showed a positive balance of 19 percentage points in May, falling to -10 in July and to a very dreary -9 in October. At least part of this downturn in confidence is likely tied to the bungled management of sovereign debt loads in the US Chart 1: Expectations of business conditions: global economy

To watch: 2012 The summer Olympics in London present a bonanza of marketing opportunities for firms in a variety of sectors

(%)

Worse than current conditions

Better than current conditions

Tech/Telecoms Full panal Financial Energy Auto Healthcare Consumer/Retail -61 -62 -55 -56 -56 -56

-51 12 12 11 10 10 7

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Source: Economist Intelligence...
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