Quantitative Methods and Analysis

Topics: Scenario planning, Reference, Citation Pages: 2 (347 words) Published: February 23, 2013
Walner Cius
Subjective Probability

Based on your experience thus far in this class, what is the probability that you will receive an "A" grade? Explain the factors you have used in arriving at this probability assessment.
We are currently in unit two of our class, The probability of me receiving a “A” grade are very low, I have a higher probability of receiving a low “B” or high “C”. Factors contributing to my probability are through the unit one individual project I could not understand the assignment and I wasn’t able to complete it. Do you believe that all students in your class will arrive at the same probability assessment that you have? Why or why not?

I do not believe all students will arrive at the same probability assessment that I have, I believe this because the probability for myself was low and I believe in my class mates and I believe they can and there’s a high probability they will receive an “A” grade. Explain what is meant by subjective probability. Research the Internet, and provide a business-related example in which subjective probability assessment would likely be used (be sure to cite your sources).

Subjective probability is a personal judgment on whether a certain outcome of a situation will happen or not, this probability is not supported by any type of data or calculations only the personals past experiences and their opinions. In a business scenario a manager may have faith in employees selling skills and assign them to go make a sale with a certain customer, based on past experiences the manager’s opinions on the worker makes him believe in his employees skills. Provide an example of when you have personally used subjective probability assessment or how you might use it in the future.

I recall using subjective probability during sports events; when I go to watch my sons games I have never seen the other team play before but I automatically make the probability of my sons team winning because of my opinions....
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