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Prospects for Pakistan

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Prospects for Pakistan
Jonathan Paris

January 2010

Prospects for Pakistan
Jonathan Paris Legatum Institute

Copyright © 2010 Legatum Limited All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Please direct all enquiries to the publishers. Legatum Institute 11 Charles Street, Mayfair London, W1J 5DW United Kingdom T +44 (0)20 7148 5400 F +44 (0)20 7148 5401 www.li.com info@li.com

CoNTeNTS
Preface executive Summary Introduction Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Conclusion economy Civil-Military Issues Trends In Islamism The Future of Pashtun Nationalism The Future of The Pakistan Taliban The India-Pakistan Relationship China-Pakistan Relations US-Pakistan Relations 4 5 11 13 21 27 34 39 45 52 54 60

PReFACe

The author wishes to thank Stephen P. Cohen (Brookings Institute), Shuja Nawaz (Atlantic Council), Stephen Tankel (King’s College London) and Joshua White (SAIS) in Washington, Nigel Inkster (IISS), eric Kaufmann (Birkbeck) and Anatol Lieven (King’s College London and New America Foundation) in London, and David Washbrook at Trinity College, Cambridge, for their comments and for providing a helpful framework for understanding the coming challenges and opportunities for Pakistan. The author would especially like to extend his gratitude to William Inboden, Senior Vice President of Legatum Institute, who asked the author to prepare this Report, for patiently mentoring the author with supportive and critical feedback throughout these past 16 months, and to Claudia Schwartz, Research Assistant at Legatum, for helping turn the manuscript into a printed Report. Jonathan Paris1

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Jonathan S. Paris is a London-based political analyst and Non-resident Senior Fellow with...