“Odds are Against your Breaking that Law of Averages” In this article James Trefil discusses key issues concerning the use of statistics and the study of probability. He gives us historical background on the development of probability studies tied to games of chance; basic ideas of probability that are part of our mental arsenal and can be used in all kinds of unexpected situations; implications on statistics. First of all, he talks about that probabilities take their place in every part of our life, how can we put statistics in our life, how can we calculate the probability, which is born in the study of games of chances. There is a calculation of rolling a die without getting a double “6” and he says that conventional thinking reveals that breakeven point in rolling a die for four times gives us 24 but it is revealed by De Mere that it is not 24 it is 25 for the double die game. And then he says that throwing die without getting 6 is 5/6 and if it would be thrown for four times iut gives us 5/6 times 4 equals .48 that means that we have 0.48 percent to win the game. Another example is roulette game, he says that in roulette there are 18 black 18 red slots in conventional way we night think that we have chance of 18/36 which is 50% of winning but there is also extras such as 0 and 00 numbers so we have 38 numbers and we have the chance of 18/38=47 percent. It is said in the article that there are two central ideas of probability; first is we divide number of ways that we can be successful by the number of ways that things can turn out as in the example of rolling a die. The second one is that the probability of an independent event doesn’t depend on what happened in the past. For example what comes when heads or tails when you throw the coin doesn’t depend on the last one. But if you try picking a card from a deck of cards it is depended if you take out each card from the deck when you pick them. Risk is defined...

...project; Natural Disasters, Theft of Materials, Power losses, Accidental Errors, Power losses and Human errors due to limited skills and expertise, were the factors that were considered. For each of these factors, it was necessary to establish the probability of occurrence, the impact it will have on the project and the cost of mitigation. This was also necessary in ensuring that the project team is not distracted by symptoms but rather, root causes.
2.2 Risk Analysis Procedure...

...The North Star Concert North Star.xls Best Guess, Worst Case, Best Case; and Continuous Uncertainties
3 Engine Services, Inc.
Quick Start Guide to Crystal Ball
Analyzing Uncertainty, Probability Distributions, and Simulation Learning Module: Crystal Ball Litigate Demo
Engine Services.xls Language of Probability Distributions and Monte Carlo Simulation
4 Taurus Telecommunications Corporation: A New Prepaid Phone Card Learning Module: Tornado Sensitivity
Taurus...

...Significance of the study
This study aims to propose an intervention program covering the secondary mathematics subject. The academe, both faculty and students, shall benefit through having a guided program to increase the quality of the mathematics teaching-learning process. administrators and the university itself will also benefit once the proposal had been approved, executed and positively assessed, producing competent students, thus encouraging...

...Probability Theory and Game of Chance
Jingjing Xu
April 24, 2012
I. INTRODUCTION
Probability theory is the mathematical foundation of statistics, and it can be applied to many areas requiring large data analysis. Curiously, that the study on probability theory has its root in parlor games and gambling. In 17th century, dice...

...A Short History of Probability
Dr. Alan M. Polansky
Division of Statistics
Northern Illinois UniversityHistory of Probability 2
French Society in the 1650’s
! Gambling was popular
and fashionable
! Not restricted by law
! As the games became
more complicated and
the stakes became
larger there was a
need for mathematical
methods for computing
chances.History of Probability 3
Enter the Mathematicians
! A well-known gambler,
the...

...I. Probability Theory
* A branch of mathematics concerned with the analysis of random phenomena. The outcome of a random event cannot be determined before it occurs, but it may be any one of several possible outcomes. The actual outcome is considered to be determined by chance.
* The word probability has several meanings in ordinary conversation. Two of these are particularly important for the development and applications of the mathematical theory of...

...submit bid
Announcement of winning bid
Announcement of zoning referendum results
Based on the sequence of events in the timeline, we can draw a decision tree showing all the decisions and chance events. A more detailed decision tree with probabilities for each state of nature will be illustrated in the appendix.
Recommendations
1. If no market research information is available, the expected value of submitting the bid would be a profit of $0.05 million, whereas the...

...guys, this is the probability Assignment. Last date for submission is 10 aug...
Q1. What is the probability of picking a card that was either red or black?
Q2. A problem in statistics is given to 5 students A, B, C, D, E. Their chances of solving it are ½,1/3,1/4,1/5,1/6. What is the probability that the problem will be solved?
Q3. A person is known to hit the target in 3 out of 4 shots whereas another person is known to hit the target in 2...