Probability Paper

Topics: Bayes' theorem, Conditional probability, Weather Pages: 3 (708 words) Published: April 6, 2013
Probability Paper
David E. Nelson
February 14, 2013
Professor Minh Bui

Probability Paper
My friends suggested that we take a hiking trip through South America this year. The reason for such a trip was to celebrate 16 years of close friendship. The four of us had known each other since we were in middle school and have since become inseparable. Even though we all lead very different lives and have even started our own families, we always manage to find time to spend with each other. The timing of this trip was to span from February 21st through to May 17th. The specific location of this trip was planned to be a country named Altiplano. This country is located in west-central South America, where the Andes are at their widest. This originally sounded like an excellent idea. Given the fact that none of us had ever been there before, I decided to do some research on the country. According to the National Geographic Travel website, raining season in the Altiplano may stretch from December through March of every year. The travel agent strongly recommended that we visit another country in South America during our vacation because of this fact. I have to decide whether to book the travel arrangements to Altiplano and risk the dangers of being caught in the rainy season or to make reservations for elsewhere in the continent. Our tour guide Pablo stated to us that, “Rainy season is perhaps the most beautiful time to be in Altiplano”, but he doubted that the season would last very long this year due to the short seasons of the last six years. I found that 30% of all hiking trips through South America are cancelled due to harsh weather conditions. I used the Bayes Theroem to interpret the data.

I then set up the variable to examine the probability of cancellation. Hiking Trip 1= H1 = Canceled by Raining Season
Hiking Trip 2= H2 = Not canceled by Raining Season
This assisted me in making the decision to allow our group to travel to Altiplano or elsewhere...
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