Pinkerton, S., Galletly, C., & Seal, L. (2007). Model-based estimates of HIV acquisition due
to prison rape. The Prison Journal , 87 (3), 295-310.

Pinkerton, Galletly, and Seal (2007) developed a mathematical model of HIV that calculates how often HIV is transmitted from prison rape and provided an estimated number of inmate who received the disease while incarcerated in the US prisons. The hypothesis of the model is to figure out how often the disease was transferred because of prison rape and to get an estimate of how many inmates in U.S. prisons that acquire HIV because of prison rape (Pinkerston et al., 2007). The research concentrated male inmates, forced sex, and did not include oral sex. In their (Pinkerston et al., 2007) model of the equation the probability that an incarcerated man would possess HIV equaled to “the product: P(HIV)= P(HIV/R) x P(R), where P(R) was the probability that the inmate was raped and P(HIV/R) was the probability that he would acquire HIV if raped” (pg. 297). They then multiplied P(HIV) to the total number of inmates incarcerated in the US federal and state prisons (Pinkerston et al., 2007). Many different factors, possibilities, scenarios, and increased risk of assailant were analysis with the calculation. Their mathematical model resulted the likelihood of becoming HIV position the first time being raped by five assailants, the mean amount analysis, was 0.21%, 1 in 477 inmates, and if the victim was raped 7 more times by 1 of the assailant that already raped him, the victim then increased his likelihood by 0.48%, 1 in 208 inmates (Pinkerston et al., 2007). Inclusively, with accounted scenarios, the averaged risk of acquiring HIV being raped was 0.49%, assuming 1% of incarcerated men are raped during imprisonment. The model suggested estimated of 68.1 of 1.4 million men incarcerated in US prison at the end of 2003 are already or will be infected with HIV (Pinkerston et al., 2007). This research was significant because it... [continues]

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