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New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research Author(s): Vijay Mahajan, Eitan Muller, Frank M. Bass Source: The Journal of Marketing, Vol. 54, No. 1 (Jan., 1990), pp. 1-26 Published by: American Marketing Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1252170 . Accessed: 15/02/2011 01:06 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at . http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=ama. . Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.

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Vijay Mahajan, Eitan Muller, & Frank M. Bass

New

Diffusion Models A and Marketing: Review Directions for Research

Product

in

Since the publication of the Bass model in 1969, research on the modeling of the diffusion of innovations has resulted in a body of literature consisting of several dozen articles, books, and assorted other publications. Attempts have been made to reexamine the structural and conceptual assumptions and estimation issues underlying the diffusion models of new product acceptance. The authors evaluate these developments for the past two decades. They conclude with a research agenda to make diffusion models theoretically more sound and practically more effective and realistic.

THE diffusion of an innovation traditionallyhas been defined as the process by which that innovation "is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system" (Rogers 1983, p. 5). As such, the diffusion process consists of four key elements: innovation, communication channels, time, and the social system. As a theory of communications, diffusion theory's main focus is on communication channels, which are the means by which information about an innovation is transmitted to or within the social system. These means consist of both the mass media and interpersonal communications. Members of a social system have different propensities for relying on mass media or interpersonal channels when seeking information about an innovation. Interpersonal communications,

is W. Chair Professor Marketing, of Edwin Vijay Mahajan Herman Lay L.CoxSchool Business, of Southern Methodist Eitan University. Muller is Associate Recanati School Business Graduate of AdminProfessor, Tel-Aviv M. Israel. of istration, University, Frank Bassis UniversityTexas McDermott ProfessorManagement, of of System Eugene UniversityTexas at Dallas. authors The thank Kerin, Jain, Schmittlein, Roger Dipak David Rabikar for 2), Sen, Chatterjee (especially his helpwithTable Subatra Mike and for An comments. unHanssens, JoshEliashberg their helpful version the article be obtained theauthors. of can from abridged

including nonverbal observations, are important influences in determining the speed and shape of the diffusion process in a social system. Since its introduction to marketing in the 1960s (Ardt 1967; Bass 1969; Frank, Massy, and Morrison 1964; King...
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