Chance and Strategy Portfolio
The chance and strategy unit problem was to find a strategy for the game Pig that gives you the most points in the long run. The game of pig is where you roll a die for however many rolls as you want to. Each number you roll gets added to your score, the person with the highest score wins. However if you roll a one, then all the points you won that turn are lost.
Probability is any fraction or percent going from 0 to 1. There are two types of probability; theoretical probability is the probability of what should happen. The theoretical probability of getting heads when flipping a coin is ½. The other kind of probability is observed probability. This is when you take the probability of something from the results that you have gotten doing this thing. Such as if you flipped a coin 8 times and got 6 heads, the probability would be ¾. This form will be more accurate over time as the results level out.
Because of observed probability people often fall into the belief know as the Gamblers Fallacy. This when you have a string of events that lead you to believe that something different has a higher probability of happening because it hans’t happened in a while. However past events will not affect the current probability of something happening. Such as rolling a die. If you roll a bunch of sixes that doesn’t raise your probability of getting a five.
A strategy is a set of rules or actions that you use to achieve a certain goal. Most board games are based off of strategies. If you have a good strategy that can be adapted to fit different situations, then you become a master of that game. In this Unit we will be focusing on a Strategy for the game Pig.
The best strategy that I have found so far in Pig is to keep on rolling until you get at least twenty points. I decided to go to twenty so if you do get a 1, you don’t actually loose that many points. If you keep getting a bunch of sets in the...
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