Opperation Management

Topics: Forecasting, Data analysis, Time series analysis Pages: 2 (284 words) Published: June 15, 2012
1)What are the main advantages that quantitative techniques for forecasting have over qualitative techniques? What limitations? Qualitative is mainly inputs- real numbers
Quantitative are based on yearly events or what’s forecasted to come 2)What are some of the consequences for poor forecasts?
Demand for an item, items have a way of counseling their selves out, allowances should be made for forecasts errors 3) list the specific weakness of each of these approaches to develop a forecast A)costumer surveys

Costumers are not always truthful
B) Sales force composite
Pessimistic and unsure
C) Committee of managers or executives
The view of one person will prevail causing an un accrete forecasts 4)Briefly describe the Delphi technique. Benefits and weakness A questioner given everyday it makes one think of the future it doesn’t always deal with the forecasts 5)What is the purpose of establishing control limits for forecasts errors. To show center +_3

6)What factors would you consider in deciding whether to use wide or narrow control limits for forecast. Average , duration of project 7)contrast the use of mad and mse
MAD(mean absolute deviation)
MSE (mean square error)
8)what advantage as a forecasting tool does exponential smoothing have over moving averages. It dosent require maintain a history. Smoothing seem easier to calculate on a computer, it has the abilty to change trend 9)How dose number of periods in a moving average affect the responsiveness of the forecast? It multiplies it

10) What factors enter into your choice of a value for the smoothing constant in exponential smoothing? .05 to .50
11) how accurate is your five day weather forcast?
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