Anindya Dutta, Diwas Joshi, Ganesh, Kirmani Faridnajam Asim, Sandeep Dalmia, Vijay R
1. Evaluation of consultant’s estimates:
* The textile industry has been estimated accurately by the consultant. It also matches with the estimate of the Planning Commission. * Significant increases in the excise duty on cigarettes have prompted manufacturers to minimize the use of cellophane for packaging. This trend might continue in the future and the consultant has not accounted for the same. The consultant has also not considered the recurring labour problems that exist in this industry, while making his projections. This will bring down the demand even further. * The consultant expects the relative share of packing materials in the pharmaceutical industry to shift favourably towards cellophane. However several pharmaceutical companies have opted for cheaper paper-polythylene laminate for packing of analgesics. This has also not been considered by the consultant. * For certain estimations, the consultant has not clearly explained why he/she has taken certain assumptions and estimates. For e.g., the consultant estimates a decrease in the market share of cellophane from 74% in 1972 to 64% in 1977, without adequate reasons. * The consultant has not estimated the projections for demand of Cellulose bags and pouches.
2. Estimates for the demand:
Industry| Comments| Estimated Demand|
Textile| No deviation from consultant’s estimate| 2400| Tobacco| Assuming a drop of 10% in Cellophane demand due to Excise duty| 1895| Confectionery| No deviation from consultant’s estimate| 765| Pharmaceuticals| Taking paper-polythene demand to be 15% (more than consultant’s estimate)| 350| Others| No deviation from consultant’s estimate| 2118| Total| | 7528|
10% Wastage| | 752|
Net Demand| | 8280|
3. Our Recommendations:
* After critical analysis, we have concluded that the projected demand for the year 1977 will...