Net Present Value and Project

Topics: Net present value, Internal rate of return, Cash flow Pages: 17 (3279 words) Published: May 23, 2014
UNIVERSITY OF LA VERNE

La Verne, California

Tesca Case

A Paper Submitted in Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for
BUS 635 CRN 1105 – Managing Financial Resources

Nepal Plummer

College of Business and Public Management

Department of Management and Leadership

March 3, 2014

TESCA CASE STUDY

SUMMARY RESULTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The proposed refrigerator manufacturing and sales project for Tesca Works, Inc. is a financially complicated project which on the surface, given the increase in energy costs and customer demand may seem like a winning proposition. However, when we delve further into the details of the financial projections along with projections of the future of the refrigerator market we are able to make a confident recommendation to Mr. Burton and the executive staff at Tesca Works, Inc. Using the information provided by the Tesca team we were able to create a comprehensive capital budget and cash flow analysis for the proposed refrigerator project.

Through our analysis we found that the cost of capital of the project to be 13.487% and a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to be at a value of 9.70%. Factoring in the WACC into our projections we found that if the demand maintains at an average rate the project will be at a positive Net Present Value of $5,997,505.31 with an IRR of 13.21%, a profitability index of 8.84, and an approximate payback period of 6.84 years. Please see Exhibits below for a snapshot of the capital budget and NPV values.

This information seemed to be very promising for the project in general. However, our continued analysis showed the project to be very sensitive to the sales price per unit of the refrigerator. We used the average demand scenario to produce a sensitivity analysis and found that with just a 5% decrease in the sales price of the refrigerator the NPV quickly dipped into a negative value thus showing the project to be extremely sensitive to the sales price of the refrigerator.

Our scenario analysis also exposed a strong probability of the project giving a negative Net Present Value and giving a probable low Internal Rate of Return of only 4.01%. This is mainly due to the projects sensitivity to the sales price of the refrigerator and the potentially lower sales in the event of weak demand for the product.

Because of the high probability for a very low IRR and negative NPV we are recommending that the project be rejected. The information we have uncovered through detailed financial analysis showed that the project is far too sensitive to lower demand and lower sales prices per unit. This is especially true for a lower sales price for the refrigerator. We found that even a small decrease in the sales price of just over 1% would cause the project’s NPV to become negative, even with an average unit sales demand. There may be potential for an average or strong demand in the marketplace, however there is too much risk to recommend project acceptance. A decision to move forward with the project would be mainly based on a ‘gut-feeling’ rather than on sound financial reasoning. Thus it is our official recommendation that Tesca Works, Inc. reject the project.

1) IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY COST SITUATION
The question of energy cost being a factor of the decision to move forward with this project is of critical importance. This is because whether or not consumers are inspired to purchase a new appliance may be spurred by increases in energy costs as well as possible tax benefits or rebates from power generating companies. Some consumers may be aware of the benefits of energy efficient appliances which may cause an increase in the normal demand for refrigerators. Tesca is in a unique position to be able to offer high efficiency refrigerators to the United States public at a time when the public is looking to reduce their use of electricity and other utility costs. When we look at...
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