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2012-2013 Entry-Level Analyst Hiring Projections for the U.S. Intelligence Community Gregory Marchwinski, Analyst Institute of Intelligence Studies at Mercyhurst University

IISMU: Entry-Level Analyst Hiring Projections for the U.S. I.C., 2012-2013

US Intelligence Community Entry-Level Analyst Hiring Likely Reduced Over Next 12 Months; Cyber Intelligence Prospects Still High Executive Summary Due to uncertainty over federal government deficit reduction initiatives and a decreasing military presence globally, it is highly likely that overall hiring of entry-level intelligence analysts within the US Intelligence Community (IC) will decrease significantly from recent levels until the next budget cycle begins in October of 2013. The only exception to this general trend is cyber-related positions which are likely to see a moderate increase despite budget cuts. Additionally, it is highly likely that sequestration throughout the IC will significantly limit hiring entry-level intelligence analysts in all analytic functions until defense funding negotiations are resolved.

Discussion In a recent survey to intelligence professionals in the national security sector with direct or significant indirect knowledge of hiring plans, 57.1 percent of respondents said that they either strongly disagree or somewhat disagree that hiring for entry-level analysts is likely to increase over the next 12 months.1 Of those same respondents, a similar 57.1 percent also disagreed that their agency or company would likely increase entry-level analyst hiring over the next 12 months. These responses are slightly elevated from last year’s survey results in which 51 percent of respondents replied strong or somewhat disagreement over entry-level analyst hiring will increase in national security, and 55 percent of respondents disagreed that hiring would increase at their agency or company within the next 12 months.2 The results from this year’s survey and professional environment factors sharply contrast with last year’s estimates which indicated that hiring would decrease slightly and that cyber and geo-spatial intelligence functions were still viable areas for prospective entry-level analysts.3 Although the majority did not expect an increase in entry-level analyst hiring in either the national security sector or within their agency, 19 percent agreed or strongly agreed that hiring was likely to increase in the national security sector, and 28.5 percent agreed or strongly agreed that hiring was likely to increase within their agency or company within the next twelve months. Notably, 23.8 percent of respondents remained neutral over hiring in the national Survey Results: "Entry-Level Analyst Hiring is Likely to Increase in the National Security Intelligence Community Over the Next 12 Months"

9.5%

9.5%

Strongly Disagree 38.1% Somewhat Disagree Neutral

23.8% 19.0%

Somewhat Agree Strongly Agree

Page 1 of 7

IISMU: Entry-Level Analyst Hiring Projections for the U.S. I.C., 2012-2013 security sector; 9.5 percent responded neutral for an increase in hiring at their company or agency.4 Survey Results: "Deficit Reduction Initiatives in Washington D.C. are Likely to Have a Negative Impact on Entry-Level Intelligence Analyst Hiring Over the Next Twelve Months" 4.76% 4.76%

9.52% 14.29%

Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree N/A

66.67%

Several respondents offered their perspective on fundamental hiring trends throughout the intelligence community. One respondent stated that “the number of government positions will probably stabilize, while contract positions are likely to diminish. In terms of contracting, two groups should have some advantage: new hires and specialists. New hires are cheap… In the government realm, I expect that hiring will mirror attrition rates, or perhaps even lag somewhat behind as agencies realign and shed weight in order to achieve a greater degree of efficiency.”5

Another respondent stated that “it...
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