Napa Valley Winery Inc
Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc. Future Sales Forecast Report
Prepared by: Karriem Pierre
November 20, 2011
Nova Southeastern University
Business Modeling, Fall Semester, Online Course
Professor Phillip S. Rokicki, Ph.D
Executive Summary
Ms. Quintana CEO of Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc. was considering conducting business with Trans Continental stores to sell excess grapes from the 2008 harvest. Prior to making a decision Quintana must determine how much of the harvest should be retained for the production of Northern Napa’s own red table wine. Quintana realized that the quantity of red table wine produced is closely associated to the sales. Ms. Quintana reviewed her past sales in order to predict future sales based on the amount of wine produced in 2008. The issue Quintana faced was the seasonality of wine sales; December being its peak time in sales. After careful consideration, Quintana determined that although her previous forecasting method had worked from an operational standpoint, however, there was still room to improve its accuracy. Quintana has to determine what the forecasting profits will be for the next 16 months (Sept2008 to Dec 2009) prior to the conclusion of any business deals with TransContinental. The software that was used in order to predict the future sales was StatTools. StatTools provided me with four different methods (Moving Averages, Simple, Holt’s & Winters’ exponential smoothing) of forecasting to identify the most accurate prediction possible. With a Means Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 3.72% the Holt’s exponential smoothing method was determined to be the best method of predicting monthly wine sales for the next sixteen months (Figure 2).
Background/Additional Research on Napa Valley Wineries
The Napa valley is known for its stylish and exquisite wine blends. The highly acclaimed Paraduxx Winery was founded in 1994
Prepared by: Karriem Pierre
November 20, 2011
Nova Southeastern University
Business Modeling, Fall Semester, Online Course
Professor Phillip S. Rokicki, Ph.D
Executive Summary
Ms. Quintana CEO of Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc. was considering conducting business with Trans Continental stores to sell excess grapes from the 2008 harvest. Prior to making a decision Quintana must determine how much of the harvest should be retained for the production of Northern Napa’s own red table wine. Quintana realized that the quantity of red table wine produced is closely associated to the sales. Ms. Quintana reviewed her past sales in order to predict future sales based on the amount of wine produced in 2008. The issue Quintana faced was the seasonality of wine sales; December being its peak time in sales. After careful consideration, Quintana determined that although her previous forecasting method had worked from an operational standpoint, however, there was still room to improve its accuracy. Quintana has to determine what the forecasting profits will be for the next 16 months (Sept2008 to Dec 2009) prior to the conclusion of any business deals with TransContinental. The software that was used in order to predict the future sales was StatTools. StatTools provided me with four different methods (Moving Averages, Simple, Holt’s & Winters’ exponential smoothing) of forecasting to identify the most accurate prediction possible. With a Means Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 3.72% the Holt’s exponential smoothing method was determined to be the best method of predicting monthly wine sales for the next sixteen months (Figure 2).
Background/Additional Research on Napa Valley Wineries
The Napa valley is known for its stylish and exquisite wine blends. The highly acclaimed Paraduxx Winery was founded in 1994