In recent years, Hong Kong’s house prices have risen very rapidly. Please use the supply and demand theory to analyse the reasons for rising housing prices, and also discuss the possible effects on the housing market if there is a belief that house prices will keep rising. Out line
1 介绍香港的房价,人口增长,收入.2001-2012 100 图 2介绍香港的住房情况,以及政府的三种政策,房屋和土地的供应.2011-2012 200图 3介绍引起香港房价的原因: 供应和需求两方面. 100 4介绍 供求理论.图表100
1需求房屋的低收入人群可以通过政府的公租屋，剩余的人收入较高，所以导致房价高，（收入）房子是正常物品收入升高导致需求大 2基本住房情况是面积过小，人们有改善居住条件的需求 投资需求
1由于利率很低，按揭稳定，失业率较低，人们又稳定的购房环境，导致了购房需求旺盛（期望） 2大陆投资的人以及热钱的进入导致买者的数量多。 房屋既是必须品又是投资资产。
2土地开发商本来就是少数的大财团，所以市场的竞争力不强 3一半的人口住在镇府的公租房里，可以缓解需求。或是对私人房屋的替代 6 分析如果人们期望房价还会长以后的供求变化. 200 当人们相信房价会继续涨的时候
1房价高很但是可供开发的土地并不多，所以开发商可以减少供应等待合适的价格出售 2政府会增加一些土地供应以及建设公租房保证居民的居住从而增大房屋的供应， 7总结
Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated cities in the world. Meanwhile, it also has the highest housing price in the world. According to the 8th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Housing Affordability Survey report in 2011 which has been recommended by World Bank and the United Nations, Hong Kong had the most unaffordable housing in the survey with a median multiple of 12.6. Median multiple means median house price divided by gross annual median household income. To figure out the reasons which drive Hong Kong housing price rise rapidly, this essay is going to analysis this question into four parts. The first part will briefly introduce some basic information about Hong Kong housing market. The second part is going to take through upon the supply and demand theory which is the main theory to explain the question. The third part will explain the reasons in two aspects which are demand and supply. The final part will estimate possible effects on the housing market if there is a belief that house prices will keep rising. It is important to introduce the special structure of Hong Kong. According to Hong Kong Housing Authority, there are almost 2.6 million residents units in Hong Kong. Of those, 761000 live in Public Rental Housing (PRH), 391000 live in Subsidized Home Ownership Housing and 1447000 live in Private Permanent Housing. PRH and subsidized home ownership housing which are provide by Hong Kong government are aimed at insure low-income family have housing. In another word, almost half of Hong Kong residents live in houses with government subsidies.
Actually, the real customers in housing market are high-income families and speculators. They are able to afford the high housing price, what’s more, they can benefit from the appreciation in asset value. This housing structure is made by the government which seemingly has a positive effect to lower the housing price. However, it is arguably to assume that the main cause of high housing price is the government policy. Although Hong Kong is market economy, Hong Kong government which is the sole land owner plays a key role in housing and land price. Rather than selling land, Hong Kong government rent land to private developers. Meanwhile, the land developers in Hong Kong are also limited. The land supply is also strictly controlled by government which directly lead to land supply shortage.
Mankiw (2008) argued that “supply and demand” is a fundamental tool when analysing economic phenomena. Meanwhile, they are powerful forces in market which determine market prices and quantities. Demand (requirement from consumers) and supply (provision from sellers) are two basic concepts in this tool (Landsburg, 2008). Moreover, the quantity of demand is the amount of goods that customers would like and able to buy while the quantity of supply is the amount that suppliers are willing and able to sell. The relationship between certain price of goods and quantity demand or...
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