When determining the number of days needed to repair a copier, it is best to assume that the number of days is random. It is best to generate this random, which is illustrated on the excel spreadsheet as r2. R2 will be numbers between 0 and 1. To determine this value a random number will be generated in excel. The number of days needed to repair the copier will be determined based on the cumulative outline below:
0.00 > r2 < 0.20, then it will take 1 day;
0.20 > r2 < 0.65, then it will take 2 days;
0.65 > r2 < 0.90, then it will take 3 days; and
0.90 > r2 < 1.00, then it will take 4 days.
Intervals between Breakdowns
Intervals between breakdowns are a probability distribution. The variables will be random and range between 0 through 6 weeks. As the time continues, the probability will increase. To determine this number a function of x will be used, as illustrated.
F(x) = x/18, for 0 thru 6, where 'x' equals the weeks between machine breakdowns
F(x) = x2/36, for 0 thru 6, this is the distribution function that can be further simplified
r1 = x2/36, to simplify set the equation equal to r1
x = 6 * SQRT (r1), final equation.
Jet Copies demonstrates a uniform probability distribution as it pertains to the number of copies sold per day. The average sale is between 2,000 through 8,000 copies a day, at $0.10 a copy. This number is denoted on the excel spreadsheet as r3 by generating a random number between 2,000 and 8,000. To calculate the total amount of business lost on any given day, the following calculations utilized: Lost Revenue = repair time * r3 * 0.10
The total amount of lost revenue is $20,166.30. This number is not totally accurate, but is an approximation of lost. The amount will always change significantly because r1, r2, and r3 are numbers generated randomly. To get a close approximation the breakdown will have to consist of 365 to account...
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