Days-to-Repair
When determining the number of days needed to repair a copier, it is best to assume that the number of days is random. It is best to generate this random, which is illustrated on the excel spreadsheet as r2. R2 will be numbers between 0 and 1. To determine this value a random number will be generated in excel. The number of days needed to repair the copier will be determined based on the cumulative outline below:

0.00 > r2 < 0.20, then it will take 1 day;
0.20 > r2 < 0.65, then it will take 2 days;
0.65 > r2 < 0.90, then it will take 3 days; and
0.90 > r2 < 1.00, then it will take 4 days.
Intervals between Breakdowns
Intervals between breakdowns are a probability distribution. The variables will be random and range between 0 through 6 weeks. As the time continues, the probability will increase. To determine this number a function of x will be used, as illustrated.

F(x) = x/18, for 0 thru 6, where 'x' equals the weeks between machine breakdowns
F(x) = x2/36, for 0 thru 6, this is the distribution function that can be further simplified
r1 = x2/36, to simplify set the equation equal to r1
x = 6 * SQRT (r1), final equation.
Lost Revenue
Jet Copies demonstrates a uniform probability distribution as it pertains to the number of copies sold per day. The average sale is between 2,000 through 8,000 copies a day, at $0.10 a copy. This number is denoted on the excel spreadsheet as r3 by generating a random number between 2,000 and 8,000. To calculate the total amount of business lost on any given day, the following calculations utilized: Lost Revenue = repair time * r3 * 0.10

The total amount of lost revenue is $20,166.30. This number is not totally accurate, but is an approximation of lost. The amount will always change significantly because r1, r2, and r3 are numbers generated randomly. To get a close approximation the breakdown will have to consist of 365 to account...

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MAT540 MIDTERM EXAM
1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
2. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
3. A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
5. A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
6. Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
7. The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
8. Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
9. Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
10. __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
11. The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
12. Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine...

...• Question 1
2 out of 2 points
Probabilistic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Answer
Selected Answer: False
Correct Answer: False
• Question 2
2 out of 2 points
Parameters are known, constant values that are usually coefficients of variables in equations.
Answer
Selected Answer: True
Correct Answer: True
• Question 3
0 out of 2 points
Fixed cost is the difference between total cost and total variable cost.
Answer
Selected Answer: False
Correct Answer: True
• Question 4
2 out of 2 points
In general, an increase in price increases the break even point if all costs are held constant.
Answer
Selected Answer: False
Correct Answer: False
• Question 5
2 out of 2 points
A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
Answer
Selected Answer: False
Correct Answer: False
• Question 6
2 out of 2 points
If events A and B are independent, then P(A|B) = P(B|A).
Answer
Selected Answer: False
Correct Answer: False
• Question 7
2 out of 2 points
The events in an experiment are mutually exclusive if only one can occur at a time.
Answer
Selected Answer: True
Correct Answer: True
• Question 8
2 out of 2 points
If fixed costs increase, but variable cost and price remain the same, the break even point
Answer
Selected...

...Question 1
. Parameters are known, constant values that are usually coefficients of variables in equations. Answer True False
2 points =T
Question 2
. In general, an increase in price increases the break even point if all costs are held constant.
. Answer True False
2 points =F
Question 3
. Fixed cost is the difference between total cost and total variable cost.
. Answer True False
2 points =T
Question 4
. Probabilistic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
. Answer True False
2 points =F
Question 5
. P(A | B) is the probability of event A, if we already know that event B has occurred.
. Answer True False
2 points =T
Question 6
. A binomial probability distribution indicates the probability of r successes in n trials.
. Answer True False
2 points =T
Question 7
. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval. Answer True False
2 points =F
Question 8
. The purpose of break-even analysis is to determine the number of units of a product to sell that will Answer
. . . appeal to the consumer
. . . result in a profit
. . . result in a loss
. . . result in zero profit
.
2 points = result in zero profit
Question 9
. A university is planning a seminar. It costs $3000 to reserve a room, hire an instructor, and bring in the equipment. Assume it costs $25 per student for...

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MAT540 WEEK 1 TO 11(Strayer)
MAT540 Week 1 Homework
Chapter 1, Problems 2, 4, 12, 14, 20, 22
2. The Retread Tire Company recaps tires. The fixed annual cost of the recapping operation is $60,000.The variable cost of recapping a tire is $9.The company charges $25 to recap a tire.
a. For an annual volume of 12,000 tires, determine the total cost, total revenue, and profit.
b. Determine the annual break-even volume for the Retread Tire Company operation.
4. Evergreen Fertilizer Company produces fertilizer. The company’s fixed monthly cost is $25,000, and its variable cost per pound of fertilizer is $0.15. Evergreen sells the fertilizer for $0.40 per pound. Determine the monthly break-even volume for the company.
12. If Evergreen Fertilizer Company in Problem 4 changes the price of its fertilizer from $0.40 per pound to $0.60 per pound, what effect will the change have on the break-even volume?
14. If Evergreen Fertilizer Company increases its advertising expenditures by $14,000 per year, what effect will the increase have on the break-even volume computed in Problem 13?
Reference Problem 13: If Evergreen Fertilizer Company changes its production process to add a weed killer to the fertilizer in order to increase sales, the variable cost per pound will increase from $0.15 to $0.22. What effect will this change have on the break-even volume computed in Problem 12?
20....

...
1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
2. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
3. A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches
5. Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
6. A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated
7. Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
8. Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
9. Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
10. In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
11. The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
12. Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
13. Consider the following frequency of demand: If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
14. A seed...

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MAT540 Week 2 Quiz
Question 1
If variable costs increase, but price and fixed costs are held constant, the break even point will decrease.
Question 2
Parameters are known, constant values that are usually coefficients of variables in equations.
Question 3
Probabilistic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 4
In general, an increase in price increases the break even point if all costs are held constant.
Question 5
P(A | B) is the probability of event A, if we already know that event B has occurred.
Question 6
A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
Question 7
The events in an experiment are mutually exclusive if only one can occur at a time.
Question 8
A bed and breakfast breaks even every month if they book 30 rooms over the course of a month. Their fixed cost is $4200 per month and the revenue they receive from each booked room is $180. What their variable cost per occupied room?
Question 9
The indicator that results in total revenues being equal to total cost is called the
Question 10
If the price increases but fixed and variable costs do not change, the break even point
Question 11
A university is planning a seminar. It costs $3000 to reserve a room, hire an instructor, and bring in the equipment. Assume it costs $25 per student for the administrators to provide the course materials. If we know that...

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MAT540 MIDTERM EXAM
1. Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs.
2. Variable costs are independent of volume and remain constant.
3. Regret is the difference between the payoff from the
4 A _________ period of real time is represented by a __________ period of simulated time.
5. A seasonal pattern is an up-and-down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically
6. A trend is a gradual, long-term, up or down movement of demand.
7. A model is a functional relationship and include
8. Random numbers are equally likely to occur.
9. Which of the following is not an alternative name for management science?
10. It's often ____________ to validate that the results of a simulation truly replicate reality.
11. ____________ moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do ____________ moving averages.
12. The maximin criterion results in the maximum of the minimum payoffs.
13. ___________ is a technique for selecting numbers randomly from a probability distribution.
14. Which of the following is incorrect with respect to the use of models in decision making?
15. In computer mathematical simulation a system is replicated with a mathematical model that is analyzed
16. The maximin criterion results in the
17. Analogue simulation replaces a physical system with an analogous...

...Question 1
2 out of 2 points
| |
| If variable costs increase, but price and fixed costs are held constant, the break even point will decrease.
Answer | | | |
| Selected Answer: | False |
Correct Answer: | False |
| | | |
Question 2
2 out of 2 points
| |
| In general, an increase in price increases the break even point if all costs are held constant.
Answer | | | |
| Selected Answer: | False |
Correct Answer: | False |
| | | |
Question 3
2 out of 2 points
| |
| Parameters are known, constant values that are usually coefficients of variables in equations.Answer | | | |
| Selected Answer: | True |
Correct Answer: | True |
| | | |
Question 4
2 out of 2 points
| |
| Probabilistic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Answer | | | |
| Selected Answer: | False |
Correct Answer: | False |
| | | |
Question 5
2 out of 2 points
| |
| P(A | B) is the probability of event A, if we already know that event B has occurred.
Answer | | | |
| Selected Answer: | True |
Correct Answer: | True |
| | | |
Question 6
2 out of 2 points
| |
| A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.Answer | | | |
| Selected Answer: | False |
Correct Answer: | False |
| | | |
Question 7
2 out of 2 points
| |
| The events in an experiment...