In decision making process ambiguity, variability and uncertainty are often faced. For this reason Risk Analysis is always part of any decision making process. Even if the access to information is unprecedented even then future can’t be predicted accurately. For this reason Monte Carlo simulation is used which provides all the possible outcomes of decisions, access the impacts of risks and allow better decision making under uncertain situations. Monte Carlo Simulation:
It is a computerized mathematical technique based on broad class of computer algorithms which allow people and organisations to calculate risks and hence helps in better decision making. Monte Carlo Simulation can also be termed as a problem solving technique to calculate probability of outcomes by using random variables and multiple trials which are termed as simulations (Berg, 2004). Monte Carlo Simulation is used by professionals in engineering, medicine, physics, chemists, project management, manufacturing, research and development, environmental specialists, oil and gas and several business functions. This is a reflective report in which case study of Fennel Design Project of Laura Watson company is used to predict the demand of greeting cards. The aim of the report is to speculate the situation of the Fennel Design project and also to provide a base for the companies experiencing these situations. This report uses discrete data of continuous range In this report discrete data of continuous range is used. Example of discrete data is when a coin flips in air, it have two possibilities either head or tail. Whereas, a running engine might have many temperature changes at different time intervals which is an example of continuous data. Laura Watson is a new company and so can also face these uncertainties as they don’t have any idea of when to produce, when to produce, supply and demand analysis and the situation which drives these factors. For this reason Monte Carlo Simulation is used to...
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