Main Macro Economic Indicators

Topics: Economic growth, Economics, Gross domestic product Pages: 190 (51334 words) Published: June 28, 2013
Credit Libanais Research
Main Macro Economic Indicators Key Trends & Ratios
GDP GDP At Current Prices (USD Millions) Real GDP Growth GDP per Capita At Current Prices (USD) Public Finance Net Public Debt (USD Millions) Gross Public Debt / GDP Ratio Debt Service / Net Public Debt Ratio Total Deficit (USD Millions) Total Deficit / Total Expenditures Ratio Total Deficit / GDP Ratio External Sector Balance of Trade (USD Millions) Foreign Direct Investments (USD Millions)** FDI / GDP Ratio Foreign Reserves Foreign Assets (USD Millions) Foreign Currency Reserves (USD Millions) Gold Reserves (USD Millions) Total Reserves (USD Millions) Money Supply Broad Money Supply "M2" (USD Billions) Monetization Level (M2 / GDP Ratio) 16.23 74.24% 15.57 69.39% 16.47 65.76% 24.76 85.55% 31.37(3) N.A. 11,657 9,845 4,736 16,394 12,975 10,207 5,807 18,782 12,395 9,778 7,640 20,035 19,732 17,062 8,032 27,764 25,688(4) 22,012(2) 9,246(4) 34,934(4) (7,460) 2,624 12.00% (7,115) 2,675 11.92% (8,999) 2,731 10.90% (2) (12,658) (7,297)

SUMMARY SHEET
OCTOBER 2009
2007
25,047 7.50% 6,677* 39,020 167.80% 8.40% (2,545) 30.49% 10.16%

2005
21,861 1.10% 59,880 34,756 175.70% 6.74% (1,856) 27.42% 8.61%

2006
22,438 0.60% 6,060* 37,418 179.90% 8.08% (3,027) 38.42% 13.49%

2008
28,942 8.50% 7,617* 41,500 162.50% 7.92%

2009
31,298* 7.00%* 8,132* 43,051(2) N.A. N.A.

(2) (2,922) (1,715) (2) 29.45% 25.22%

10.10%

N.A.

3,606 12.46%

N.A. N.A.

Republic Of Lebanon Sovereign Ratings
Rating Agency Tenor Long-term short-term Moody's Investors Service Ltd Fitch IBCA Ltd Long-term Long-term short-term Source: Ministry of Finance: Debt & Debt Markets Reports Q2, 2009 (1) As At End of June 2009, (2) As At End of July 2009, (3) As At September 17, 2009 (4) As At End Of September 2009 *IMF Estimates, **UNCTAD figures

Rating BC B2 BB

Outlook Stable Stable Stable

Country Report - Lebanon

Standard & Poor's

Image Source: BDL

OVERVIEW The Lebanese economy continues to prosper in 2009, notwithstanding the rippling effects of the global financial crisis and propagating World economic recession. Main indicators remain solid, thanks to a regained level of confidence in the economy, a strong banking sector, a prudent Central Bank and an unprecedented rebound in tourism activity. More particularly, Lebanon presented a unique example amid the global financial crisis managing to achieve a consensus real GDP growth rate in excess of 8% in 2008, when paradoxically, regional and international economies lowered their respective growth expectations in 2008 to negative and near zero levels. The year 2009 was no exception for the Lebanese economy, with latest estimates projecting real GDP growth at 7%, despite the intensification of the global crisis and the prevalence of a World recessionary environment in the first tier of the year, thus eclipsing the negative 1.1% anticipated growth of the global economy. The resilience of the Lebanese banking sector, unarguably the backbone of the Lebanese economy, to domestic and international shocks coupled with the vibrant 2008 and 2009 tourism seasons in the aftermath of the Doha accord and smooth 2009 parliamentary elections, were the major drivers enabling Lebanon to weather, and oddly enough to benefit, from the mammoth financial storm. The unparalleled resiliency of the banking sector to the global crisis was the fruitful result of the Lebanese Central Bank’s astute policies and stringent regulations. The credit also goes to Lebanese banks which succeeded at maintaining solid profitability levels, healthy liquidity ratios and a strong capital adequacy without tampering asset quality, with total consolidated banking sector assets attaining $105.38 billion through July 2009 up from $90.10 billion just one year earlier. A major impediment to a sustainable economic growth, however, pivots around the piling debt burden and the ensuing high debt to GDP ratio, which is considered to be one of the highest in...
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