Longitudinal Analysis Using Panel Data for Assessing Seasonality Effects on the Food Security Situation in Tajikistan 2005 Hbs

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Issue: Longitudinal analysis using panel data for assessing seasonality effects on the food security situation in Tajikistan 2005 HBS

Tajikistan: Longitudinal analysis using panel data for assessing seasonality effects on the food security situation in Tajikistan 2005 HBS

RAMASAWMY, Seevalingum
FAO Statistics Division,
Rome. Italy

Household income and expenditure survey (HIES) usually collects food data from households at only one period which may refer to one week, two weeks or one month. Most HIES extend the field work over the entire period of one year to account for any seasonal effects of household expenditure particularly food consumption. The survey estimates assume seasonal effects cancelled out in large groups of households but not at the level of the individual household. Thus, the inter-household variation estimated on the basis of such data would tend to include the seasonal effects. However, the Tajikistan Household Budget Survey (HBS) presents a particular characteristic that it collects expenditure and income data from the same household over a long period of time. The longitudinal design survey accounts for all variations including the seasonal effects when analysed over the months of the yearly period. This paper presents some trend analysis of food security statistics derived from the 2005 Tajikistan household panel monthly food consumption data collected from the sample of 925 households and evaluate the impact of the variability of the distribution of the food consumption in the food security statistics estimates.

Keywords: Food consumption data, Food security statistics, Panel data, Dietary energy consumption, Food Deprivation, Critical food poverty, Coefficient of variation.

Acknowledgements: FAO (Statistics Division and Food Security Information for Action Programme) for technical assistance and the European Community for financial support. 1. BACKGROUND

Tajikistan is a landlocked country, largely mountainous and sparsely inhabited, 90 percent is mountainous and the total area splits the country into four regions (Oblasts) and one independent city, the national capital Dushanbe. Only seven percent of the land area is arable; cotton and wheat are the main important crops. Aluminium is the major country resource together with other limited mineral resources such as silver, gold, uranium, and tungsten. With abundant water resources, it possesses much hydropower facilities which are however not well distributed among its population. The civil war (1992-97) severely damaged the already weak economic infrastructure and caused a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production.

While Tajikistan has experienced steady economic growth since 1997, nearly two-thirds of the population continues to live in poverty. Economic growth reached 10.6 percent in 2004 but dropped to eight percent in 2005 and to 7 percent in 2006. Tajikistan's economic situation, however, remains fragile due to uneven implementation of structural reforms, weak governance, widespread unemployment, and the external debt burden. Unemployment is officially estimated at 30 percent, while the figure is likely to be much higher. Lack of alternative sources of livelihoods continue to exacerbate household food insecurity and results in under-employment in the agricultural sector, while a large number of young men seasonally or definitely migrate for employment in other CIS countries. There is a high mobility of the working population to Russia, where more than half a million of the population are currently working. The 2007 Tajikistan population was about seven million; nearly 70 percent live in rural areas. The annual population growth is about 2 percent.


The paper analyses the trends of food security statistics derived from the monthly and quarterly food consumption data of the Tajikistan 2005 HBS. It also evaluates the trend variations of inequality measures of dietary energy...
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