Jet Copies Narrative

Topics: Real number, Random variable, Probability distribution Pages: 2 (565 words) Published: June 14, 2011
The JET Copies assignment is similar to the Bigelow Manufacturing Company machine breakdown example in the textbook. Hence the example was used as a guide. Days to Repair Simulation Process
In simulating the number of days to repair, first a table was created based on the information given in the Repair time and Probability information table as found in the case. The created table was defined as “Lookup” in the array information for VLookup function in Microsoft Excel. Next, based on the probability information provided, a Cumulative Probability column was generated by adding the probability numbers given (each with the number above it) and distributing the probability to the number of possible repair days from 1-4. For example, a .20 probability corresponds to 2 repair days. Next, simulating the repair times, random numbers were generated in Microsoft Excel, with the VLookup function referencing the “Lookup” table; and based on the range of the random number generated returns the associated number of repair day(s). Interval Between Successive Breakdowns Simulation Process

According to the continuous distribution information provided, interval between successive breakdowns is 0-6 weeks. Based on the Bigelow Manufacturing example, the formula for continuous probability function for the time between breakdowns is f(x) =x/18, 0 < x < 6 weeks. To simulate the interval successive breakdowns, random numbers were generated and the result multiplied by 6 and Square root. This gives the number of weeks between machine breakdowns. Cumulative Time was also generated adding the result of the generated square root and stopping just a bit above 52 weeks for the one year simulation requirement. Lost Revenue Simulation Process

An actual loss number was not provided according to the case. It only gave a range from 2000-8000 copies that they expect to sell per day at 10 cents each. It also indicates using a uniform probability in the same range. Based on this, a random...
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