Introduction to US Employment economic indicators

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Employment Situation
Market Sensitivity: Very high
Frequency: Monthly
Release Time: 8:30 a.m. first Friday of each month; covers previous month Revisions: can be major; revisions go back 2 mo.; benchmark change for establishment/payroll survey every June; benchmark change for household survey every 10 years

A weekly index that gauges the number of people hired for temporary or contract work.

Table A

Table B

*The change in the number of non-farm jobs created includes positions in government. It’s important to keep an eye on how federal, state, and local governments influence overall non-farm employment

Table B2

Table A-8

Table A-11

Table A-12

**15 weeks and over

Table A-15

Table B-1

*temporary job
*child day care services
Table B-1 Continued

*truck transportation

Strong job report (especially unexpected) portend accelerating inflation and rising interest rate  anathema to bondholders Expect a sell-off in fixed-income securities when job creation is surging How far bond prices will fall and how much yields will rise depends on many factors, especially where the economy is in the business cycle Just climbed from recession: jump in employment have modest effect because little danger of inflation Economy near peak capacity: deep drop in bond prices and sharply higher interest rates Weak employment reports  sluggish economy  bullish for bond prices (interest rate head lower) Stocks

Robust employment report  people holding jobs increase and workweek expands  employees slip into role of consumers and spend Expectations: business sales and profits will pick up
 set the stage for the rally in the equity market
EXCEPTION: economy overheating (interest rates and inflation going UP)  higher cost of borrowing will hurt companies and undermine stock prices Little or no growth  households less inclined to shop  weak sales shrink corporate income and earning  reducing incentive to own shares Dollar

Vigorous job report can drive interest rates up and rally stocks  the dollar more attractive (foreigners can now earn more by owning US Treasury securities and gain from higher equity values) anemic job report softens demands for US Dollar (because it spells trouble for American stocks and puts downward pressure on rates -- interest rate and inflation rate -- making dollar less appealing) Job Openings and Labor Turnover

Market Sensitivity: Low
Frequency: Monthly
Release Time: 10:00 a.m. 5~6 weeks after reference month
Revisions: minor
[Left column  4th under More News Releases]
The headline statistic in the main Employment Situation report (aside from the unemployment rate) is just the month-to month “change” in the number of people on corporate and government payrolls. JOLT shows the actual number of positions filled and eliminated. *There is no better measure of the economy’s health than its ability to create new positions. On average, 4 million to 5 million new positions are filled every single month in sectors like construction, manufacturing, retail, services, and the government.

Three main sections: job openings, hires, and separations (and the last of these is further differentiated by quits, layoffs, and discharges). Job Openings: number of jobs available on the last day of each month. *no difference whether the positions are full-time, part- time, temporary, or permanent. All are included. Hires: This is the total number of positions filled that entire month. Separations: number of jobs eliminated during the entire month. layoffs and discharges: involuntary; due to mergers, downsizing, or closings, or for a specific cause, such as employee theft Quits are when employees voluntarily chose to terminate their employment;...
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