CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIAN
IMPACT AND ADAPATION
THE DEGREE OF MASTER
TO BY DR. MAHAVIR SINGH JITENDER SHEORAN JAGLAN ROLL NO. 7
Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale. Global warming is projected to have significant impacts on conditions affecting agriculture, including temperature, carbon dioxide, glacial run-off, precipitation and the interaction of these elements. These conditions determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human population and domesticated animals. The overall effect of climate change on agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects. Assessment of the effects of global climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to maximize agricultural production.
INDIAN AGRICULTURE AND ITS DEPENDENCY ON CLIMATE
Selvaraju (2003) analyzed the relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (SMR) and food grain production in India .He found that the inter-annual variations in SMR and total food grain production anomalies are closely related(Figure1).However, the magnitude of change in food grain production is smaller Than the rainfall (Figure1 (a)).During the years of deﬁcit monsoon (1966,1972,1974, 1979,1982 and1987) the food grain production declined, and during the Years of excess or normal rainfall (1970, 1975, 1978, 1983and1988) it was certainly higher. The correlation between SMR and food grain production (0.71) was Signiﬁcant at the 1% level. The SMR is responsible for 50% of the variability in Total food grain production anomalies (Figure1 (b)).The SMR shows a high correlation (r = 0.80) with Kharif food grain production and a moderate correlation(r =0.41) with Rabi food grain production anomalies. Among the individual crops, rice(r = 0.66), wheat(r = 0.49) and chickpea(r = 0.49) production had signiﬁcant Association with SMR.
Figure1. Relationship between SMR and total food grain production: (a) percentage deviation from normal; (b) scatter diagram showing the relationship between normalized SMR and normalized total food grain production (FGP). (Source: Selvaraju, 2003)
There are two major objectives of my study are as under following:- 1) To evaluate the impact of variability of climatic condition on different Indian crops. 2) Adaptation to climatic variability.
Following are some methods which are adopted in the study:
1) Different crop simulation model are used to see the projected impact of climatic variability on different crops. (The CERES v3. (Crop Estimation through Resources and Environmental Synthesis version 3) models (Tsuji et al., 1994) for wheat and rice crops as incorporated in the Decision Support System for Agro technology Transfer (DSSAT) software are used for conducting sensitivity analysis and evaluating the variability and risks of different management strategies for the sites selected for the study.) 2) A case study by IASRI. On rice and jawar.
3) Different reviews are used.
4) The Hindu survey on Indian agriculture 2009
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS:
PROJECTED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT
PRODUCTION IN INDIA:
The study found that increase in temperature (by about 2°C) reduced potential grain yields in most places (FIGURE-2). Regions with higher potential productivity (such as northern India) were relatively less impacted by climate change than areas with lower potential productivity (the reduction in yields was much smaller).Climate...