Impact of the Economic Crisis on Egypt

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Economic and Social Impact of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Egypt A Study Prepared for the ILO

By Samir Radwan
April 2009

Table of Contents
Executive Summary......................................................................................................................................................................... 3 I. II. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................................. 5 The Egyptian Economy Prior to the Global Financial Crisis............................................................................. 6 II.1 The High Road to Growth................................................................................................................................................ 6 A. B. C. D. III. Macro-economic instability .................................................................................................................................... 8 Unbalanced Sectoral Sources of Growth .......................................................................................................... 9 Inadequate Human Resources.............................................................................................................................10 Growth is driven more by investment than productivity......................................................................12 Impact of the Crisis and Global Recession..........................................................................................................14

III.1 Dimensions of the Unprecedented Global Crisis.............................................................................................14 III.2 Impact of the Crisis on Egypt.....................................................................................................................................18 2.1 Macroeconomic Impact .............................................................................................................................................18 2.2 Capital Market Collapse.............................................................................................................................................22 2.3 Impact on the Real Economy ..................................................................................................................................23 IV. Labor and Social Consequences...............................................................................................................................26

IV.1 Labor Market Response to the Crisis.....................................................................................................................26 IV.2 Poverty and Vulnerability ...........................................................................................................................................32 V. Working Out of the Crisis: A Decent Work Agenda.............................................................................................33 V.1 Immediate, Short-Term Action...................................................................................................................................34 V.2 The Future: Laying the Foundation for the Post-Crisis Economy and Society ..................................35 2.1 Restructuring the Economy.....................................................................................................................................36 2.2 Improving Labor Market Policies and Institutions .....................................................................................37 2.3 Towards a Jobs Pact.....................................................................................................................................................38

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Economic and Social Impact of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Egypt Executive Summary
The financial and economic crisis that hit the global...
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