Industry Structure: Fragmented
Product Differentiation: Differentiated
Technological Change: Slow
Product/Service Technology: High
Model of Transition: Industry Life Cycle
Phases of Transition: Late Growth / Early Maturity
Product Life Cycle: Late Growth / Early Maturity
I.Uncertainties that may affect industry structure &
II.The plausible assumptions about each important causal factor
The uncertainties that exist for the Motorcycle Industry are fluctuations in the following categories: government regulations, price of supplies, Fuel Cost, Global Demand for motorcycles, Product innovation, customer loyalty value (CLV), target market, and market share.
The casual factors that drive these uncertainties are an important factor when forecasting the future of the Motorcycle Industry. The most likely scenario for government regulations will push the industry towards going “Green” and becoming more environmentally friendly by requiring lower emissions. They will require the industry to improve these emissions standards. Currently the average motorcycle averages 40 MPG (miles per gallon) in the city and 50 MPG on highway but they still emit smog into the environment. The industry will most likely use the fuel consumption statistics to their advantage by relating to the current price of gasoline and the fact that the average car gets 20 MPG and SUV’s get even less at about 16 MPG.
Price will be a major uncertainty for the industry. The industry relies on other companies to provide them with materials so that they could assemble the bike. The increasing cost of transporting these materials from the manufacturers to the motorcycle assembly plants are going to increase and therefore lead to increase in the operating cost for the industry and lead to higher price for the finished product resulting in no value added. The price of the finished product is a very important factor for the industry because all the players in the industry are trying to attract the younger target market and are competing on price. The Japanese manufacturers have a mindset that they are willing to incur short-term loss so that they could gain market share. This strategy is bad for the industry because every company will try to reduce its prices and will eventually not be able to make significant profit. This fact needs to be carefully monitored so that no one player tries to influence the overall industry.
Economic conditions in the U.S. significantly affect the firm’s performance from year to year. During an economic recession, Harley-Davidson will feel its effects since consumers tend to tighten up discretionary spending during rough times resulting in no value added to the company. This is what is currently happening in the economy.
Global demand fluctuation also is an important factor to the overall success of the industry. The global demand for the heavy weight motorcycles grows at an average core rate of 7% to 9% per year and has averaged 8.6% since 1991 for Harley Davidson. This trend will most likely continue because of the Baby-Boomers who previously purchased these bikes will continue to do so as they live more active and adventurous lives then previous generations. The baby boomers are more affluent then previous generations. The global demand will rise because of this fact. It will also rise because they are not only catering to the older consumers but also towards the younger generation and women. The industry is creating bikes that are cheaper and faster that appeal to the younger consumer. This trend will spread globally because of the Blue Ocean created by Harley Davidson because of the Rental Programs, and the Riders Edge programs that will be emulated by the other players in the industry. This will lead to the Red Ocean scenario again and companies will compete at the same level within the industry.
We also believe...