Hk Population Projection

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香港人口推算
Hong Kong Population Projections
2012 – 2041

有 關本刊 物的 查詢, 請聯 絡: 政 府統 計處 人 口 統 計 組 地 址:香 港九 龍觀塘 巧明街 100 號 Two Landmark East 8 樓 電 話:(852) 2716 8345 圖 文傳真:(852) 2716 0231 電 郵:population@censtatd.gov.hk

Enquiries about this publication can be directed to : Demographic Statistics Section, Census and Statistics Department Address : 8/F, Two Landmark East, 100 How Ming Street, Kwun Tong, Kowloon, Hong Kong. Tel. : (852) 2716 8345 Fax : (852) 2716 0231 E-mail : population@censtatd.gov.hk 政 府統計 處網 站 Website of the Census and Statistics Department

www.censtatd.gov.hk
二 零一二 年七 月出版

Published in July 2012
本刊物只備有下載版

This publication is available in download version only

序言

Foreword
The Census and Statistics Department is responsible for compiling projections of the population of Hong Kong. The main use of the population projections is to provide a common basis for Government programme planning in such areas as education, housing, transport, social services and health services. Projection results are also widely applied in business development and planning in the private sector. The last set of population projections, covering the period 2010–2039, was prepared using the mid-2009 population as the base and was released in 2010. With the availability of up-to-date benchmark population data from the 2011 Population Census, the population estimates compiled since the 2006 Population By-census have been updated. In line with the revision of population estimates, a new set of population projections, covering the period 2012–2041, has been prepared with the mid-2011 population estimate as the population base. Opportunity is also taken to make use of the most up-to-date information on fertility, mortality and movement patterns of the population which has emerged since the last set of population projections was produced. This publication contains the set of updated population projections. In addition to the projection results, this publication also presents details of the methodology and assumptions used.

政府統計處負責編製香港的人口 推算。人口推算數據的主要用途是為政府 在教育、房屋、運輸、社會服務和醫療服 務等方面的規劃工作,提供共同基礎。推 算結果也廣泛地應用在私人機構的業務發 展和策劃方面。

在二零一零年公布的上一套人口 推算,是以二零零九年年中人口為基準的 推算數字,涵蓋期為二零一零年至二零三 九年。 按二零一一年人口普查所提供最 新的基準性人口數據,自二零零六年中期 人口統計以來編製的香港人口估計數字已 被更新。為配合已修訂人口估計數字,政 府統計處以二零一一年年中人口估計為人 口基數,重新編製一套涵蓋期為二零一二 年至二零四一年的人口推算。藉着這個機 會,亦採用了自上一套人口推算公布之後 搜集所得有關生育、死亡和人口遷移模式 的最新資料。本刊物刊載這套已更新的人 口推算。

本刊物除提供推算結果外,亦詳 述所採用的推算方法和假設。

政府統計處處長 歐陽方麗麗 二零一二年七月

Mrs Lily OU-YANG Commissioner for Census and Statistics July 2012

目錄

Contents
頁數 Page

統計表一覽

List of Tables 1. Introduction
Background Projection results Projection methodology Projection assumptions Symbols Rounding of figures

vii 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 5 25 25 25 26 28 29 31 31 31 32 33 41 41 41 41 49

1. 緒言
背景 推 算結果 推 算方法 推 算假設 代號 數 字的進 位

2. 推算結果 3. 推算方法
人 口範圍 人 口推算 生 育推算 死 亡推算 人 口遷移 推算

2. Projection Results 3. Projection Methodology
Population coverage Population projections Fertility projections Mortality projections Movement projections

4. 推算假設
生 育假設

4. Projection Assumptions
Fertility assumptions Past fertility trend Fertility assumptions made Projected fertility rates Mortality assumptions Past mortality trend Mortality assumptions made Projected mortality rates Movement assumptions

過去的生育趨勢 擬定的生育假設 生育率的推算 死 亡假設

過去的死亡趨勢 擬定的死亡假設 死亡率的推算 人 口遷移 假設

香港人口推算 2012–2041

v

Hong Kong Population Projections 2012–2041

目錄

Contents

頁數 Page

概念及定義 附錄 甲. 選定年份的人口特徵 (不包括外籍家庭傭工)

Concepts and Definitions Appendix A. Characteristics of the population for selected years (excluding foreign domestic helpers) B. Survey on babies born in Hong Kong to Mainland women Means of Obtaining Publications and Other Statistical Products of the Census and Statistics Department

55 59 59

乙. 內地女性在香港所生的嬰兒 統計調查 獲取政府統計處刊物及 其他統計產品的方法

64

A1

香港人口推算 2012–2041

vi

Hong Kong Population Projections 2012–2041

統計表一覽

List of Tables
頁數 Page

推算結果
表1 表2 主要統計摘要...
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