Gulf 2020

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The GCC in 2020
The Gulf and its People
A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit
Sponsored by the Qatar Financial Centre Authority

The GCC To 2020
The Gulf And Its People

About this research

T

he GCC in 2020: Outlook for the Gulf and the global economy is a white paper written by the Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by the Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority. The findings and views expressed in this briefing paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the QFC Authority, which has sponsored this publication in the interest of promoting informed debate. The Economist Intelligence Unit bears sole responsibility for the content of the report. The author was Jane Kinninmont and the editor was Aviva Freudmann.

The findings are based on two main strands of research:
l A programme of in-depth analysis, conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit, which drew on its own long-term forecasts and projections for the six GCC economies, along with other published sources of information.

l A series of interviews in which economists, academics and leading experts in the development of the GCC were invited to give their views. In some cases, interviewees have chosen to remain anonymous.

Our sincere thanks go to all the interviewees for sharing their insight on this topic. September 2009

© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2009

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The GCC To 2020
The Gulf And Its People

Executive summary

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he profound demographic and social changes that have transformed the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) are set to continue over the next decade, raising significant questions related to labour and immigration policies, the role of women, and the adequacy of infrastructure and public services. This report is the second in a series that examines the likely themes in the development of the GCC economies to 2020. The first report predicted that the GCC will grow in importance as an economic and trading hub, making it an increasingly important trading partner as well as investor in Asia and Africa. This second report takes a closer look at the population mix of the GCC and concludes that demographic trends, while presenting some major challenges, will support the region’s increasingly pivotal role in the global economy. Future reports will consider the prospects for diversification into non-hydrocarbons industries, as well as food, water and power security in the region. Key findings of the second phase of our research on the GCC and its people are highlighted below. l The GCC has one of the fastest-growing populations in the world. By 2020 this population is forecast to increase by one-third, to 53m people. The vast majority will be under 25 years of age. The rapid growth and the relative youth of the population present serious challenges as well as major opportunities.

l The robust population growth, together with the region’s affluence and its abundant natural resources, point to continued strong market demand, which in turn helps to make the GCC countries attractive prospects for foreign investors. At the same time, the region’s long-term economic growth will depend critically on the success of efforts to educate and employ the rapidly expanding young population.

l Rapid population growth will remain concentrated in cities. This will put pressure on public services, infrastructure and housing in urban centres. It will also create a large pool of labour that may be difficult to absorb into the private sector, owing to mismatches not only of skills, but also of expectations of wages and working conditions. Ongoing education reforms will help, but will not solve these mismatches within the next ten years.

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© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2009

25/09/2009 16:10:57

The GCC To 2020
The Gulf...
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