A forecast of globalization, international business and trade: report from a Delphi study
Michael R. Czinkota *, Ilkka A. Ronkainen
McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057, USA
Abstract Globalization causes dramatic changes in business environments both in terms of their degree and swiftness. Forecasting such changes is crucial for the preparation of responses by the affected parties. This article reports on a Delphi study conducted with a set of experts drawn from the policy, business and academic communities ranging from the megamarkets of the world to the emerging and developing ones. Over three rounds of interchange, these experts analyzed and debated the likelihood of changes in the international business environment over the next decade and the impact of these changes on policy and on corporate practices. The ﬁndings identify major sectoral transformations, shifts in the trade framework and its institution, and strategies for corporate adjustment. In some cases, these phenomena occur in different geographic areas with diverse effects. # 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Globalization; International business trends; Delphi method; Trade policy; International business education
1. Introduction The importance and the impact of international business has become an accepted fact by practitioners, policy makers and academics alike. Globalization ranks high on the strategic agenda of executives as they seek to exploit commonalities and leverage resources across borders. Governments and legislatures have dramatically increased their debate and involvement in international trade and investment issues, and universities have adjusted their business curricula and research to address international business issues (Kwok & Arpan, 2002).
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