English Comp II
June 11 ,2009
Is global warming our fault? There is no denying the phenomenon known as “Global Warming “ But is it our fault? I hope to prove to all who read this that it is in no way, shape or for our, as the human race's, fault. Before we go any further into this obscure branch of science, it is important to know just what “Global Warming” really is, starting at its most basic definition. According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control), Global warming is the “increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and the oceans since the mid-twentieth century and its projected continuation”. Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 100 years ending in 2005. The aforementioned Panel attributes Anthropogenic (man made) greenhouse gases to most of the observed temperature change in the last 100 years and that natural phenomena such as solar variation and volcanoes have had a SLIGHT warming effect but a COOLING effect since then. Since these basic conclusions have been endorsed by 40 scientific societies and academies of science, we have no choice but to accept them as true for the moment.
Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that global surface temperature will likely rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-first century. The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing climate sensitivity, and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. Some other uncertainties include how warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe. Most studies focus on the period up to 2100. However, warming is expected to continue beyond 2100, even if emissions stop, because of the large heat capacity of the oceans and the long lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. So from here we can conclude with a fair amount of certainty that not all of the temperature change is our fault. But you don't look entirely convinced, so we will continue. The Environmental Extremists would have us believe that because of human interference, the O-zone layer is going to leave us because of our using energy sources that give off so called “dangerous emissions”, but they are forgetting a key player in our planet's temperature change: The Sun. Reason:1
The influence of the sun has been overlooked, for whatever reason, in the climate models as a contributor to the warming observed between 1975 and 1998. Those who support the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), now known as anthropogenic climate change so that recent cooling can be included in their scenario, always deny that the sun has anything to do with recent global temperature movements. I'm not sure how you can forget something that big, but I have brought a little light on the subject. The reason people exclude the Sun is because of the Total Solar Irradiance. Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is defined as the amount of radiant energy emitted by the Sun over all wavelengths that fall each second on 11 sq ft (1 sq m) outside the earth's atmosphere. And therein lies the problem. The TSI varied so little over that period of time, that it cannot explain the warming that was observed. TSI, I don't believe, can tell the whole story because it really isn't defined all that well and there is too much left up to chance as regards the different ways the Sun can affect the Earth. Strangely enough, I haven't seen TSI used by AGW enthusiasts, despite the clear limits it has as an indicator of solar influence. The following link shows the pattern of TSI from 1611 to 2001. http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/irradiance.gif
The graph shows that the TSI levels were basically level in 1961 if you average out the peaks and troughs from solar cycles 19-23. However, those solar cycles show substantially higher levels than we have seen before. So,...
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