GLOBAL CEMENT to 2020
Country-by-Country Forecasts of Cement Supply & Demand
The world cement industry is a complex structure of local, national, regional and global markets and cement/clinker movements. The structure is ever changing, being closely tied to changes in a range of variables – including macro-economic growth, housing sector booms, public spending levels, trade protectionism, and transportation costs. With a relatively small number of multinational companies dominating cement capacity in many markets throughout the world, the cement sector has become even more globalised in recent years. With increasing multinational presence in growing Chinese, Indian, Middle East and Latin American markets, the structure of world trade in cement and clinker continues to be dynamic, with the dramatic changes in shipping costs adding a further layer of complexity to trading patterns. The next 15 years are set to witness further extensive change in cement supply/demand patterns, as different regions/countries enjoy very different development profiles. This Report examines the current and historical development of cement supply/demand country-by-country throughout the world, and analyses the potential levels of cement supply & demand in those countries throughout the period to 2020. This Report represents the latest in a series of OSC in-depth Reports on the international cement industry published since the mid-1980s. The detail and range of forecasts in the new Report are even greater than those in the previous publications, and represent the most up-to-date and comprehensive set of forecasts available on the International cement sector. The Report includes extensive analysis and forecast for individual countries/regions on:q q q q
SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Includes an overview of the Report’s aims, as well as a summary of the methodology underlying the analyses. This Section also includes a summary of the most significant points and conclusions drawn from the main body of the Report. They are presented in the order of the corresponding Sections for ease of reference.
AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
SECTION 2 OVERVIEW : WORLD CEMENT 1970-2005
This Section provides detailed analysis of the key developments in world cement supply & demand over the past 35 years, with most emphasis on the recent years of extensive cement industry development. Attention is focussed on regional and global cement production, consumption, imports and exports.
Africa includes a wide range of markets – from the total clinker import dependency of some West African countries to the recently emerged large-scale exporter status of Egypt (a previous large import market). Each principal source of cement demand or supply is examined in detail, with market forecasts for each country through to 2020. The structure of the cement sector in the Middle East has undergone extensive change in recent years, as the commencement of new capacity has radically altered regional cement supply/demand levels. At the same time, the massive disruption associated with conflicts in the region has included marked volatility in annual cement production and consumption volumes, funding a highly dynamic market profile. The prospects for cement supply and demand throughout the region are examined, and detailed forecasts presented. As with the other Sections, a set of alternative forward scenarios is developed for each market, detailing the expected level of cement supply/demand in each case. q 5.1 Africa q 5.2 Middle East
This Section includes full discussion and analysis of cement industry developments in recent years on a country-by-country basis. The Section is sub-divided into: • 3.1 The European Union (current 15 members) • 3.2 Other Europe Europe includes a wide range of market types – from the mature industries of Western Europe to the rapidly changing cement sectors of former...