Garreau's Four Scenarios

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Final Paper- Garreau’s Four Scenarios

Garreau provides unique insight into the possible outcome of our future. In his book “Radical Evolution” he discusses four scenarios; Singularity, Heaven, Hell, and Prevail. Each of these scenarios are highly opinionative and each person can decide for their selves which scenario will most likely occur. Garreau, without a doubt, is a pioneer in the scenario mindset that he has approached in his book and it provides useful key points for consideration in determining my own personal view of the future.

The singularity scenario builds upon the curve scenario. It speaks of exponential technological change and the inevitably that this will occur. New technology developers understand the great advantages of new developments. Garreau identifies that the only way for the singularity scenario to not occur is in the even event of a cataclysmic event such as a mass disease or nuclear warfare. Those privileged enough to take advantage of new technologies will be a part of an exclusive, elite group that will essentially control the world. The will be the leaders of the world and the less fortunate majority will have no choice but to follow the will of the elite. The heaven scenario essentially says that humans will eventually transcend beyond their own being and become “god-like”. Human beings are the only creatures that have the capacity to advance evolution beyond the standard boundaries of survival. Adaptions are no longer the leading form of evolution. Humans need not worry about their personal survival in this day and age. Frankly, humans now have to learn how to deal with such an abundance of essential necessities of life. For example, the epidemic of obesity throughout the world is a result of overeating. The majority of the human population has the resources and means necessary to not have to worry about the essential food resource. The heaven scenario speaks of humans evolving in various fashions...
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