Garreau’s Possible Scenarios for the Future

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  • Topic: Technological singularity, Exponential growth, Futurology
  • Pages : 2 (528 words )
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  • Published : April 27, 2012
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Garreau’s possible scenarios for the future

In Garreau’s book “Radical Evolution”, he focused on four technologies abbeviated as GRIN: Genetics, Robotics, Information, and Nanotechnology. In the book Garreau talks of possible four futures for mankind. They are singularity, heaven, hell, and prevail. The singularity future is basically that increasing technological change is unstoppable and leads to the creation of an intelligence that is better or greater than humans and with improve upon itself at an exponential rate of growth. The heaven future is a future in which disease and poverty are eliminated. There will also be an increase in beauty, love, and wisdom. Garreau believes that these things happen of their own accord without the help or guidance of humans.

hell, and that's where people like Bill Joy and Francis Fukuyama enter the picture. They see our future as a bleak existence in which out of control nanotechnology devours every resource on the planet, or one in which humans use this fabulous technology against one another.

The "Prevail" scenario takes the human factor and places it center stage. A position advocated by a guy named Jaron Lanier and others, prevailing over the rise of GRIN essentially means people take a hands on role in new technologies. Rather than losing control of robots and genetic engineering, argues Lanier, humans will use them to strengthen the connections between individuals. The example of cell phones, where people use them to stay in constant touch with others in ways unanticipated by their creators, serves as a prime example of how we bend technology to our will instead of the other way around. No new social classes will arise in the prevail scenario based on technology, nor will the world give up the ghost because of nanotechnology run amok. One assumes that genetic engineering will not sink to the sort of eugenics programs National Socialist Germany dabbled in during the 1940s. Prevail means humanity will...
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