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UK’s 2050 Pathways Calculator
Dr Matt Webb
Department of Energy and Climate Change
18th September 2012


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2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK
How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy Domestic Engagement and International Collaboration

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We first published the 2050 Calculator in July 2010. It provides a platform for an ‘energy literate debate’

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We have since developed different formats of the Calculator - appropriate for different audiences 2050 Analysis

Product

My2050
• Educational tool • and initial engagement for members of the public

Web Tool
• Technical expert stakeholders • and well-informed public

Excel Spreadsheet
• Technical expert stakeholders • and policy-makers

Audience

Complexity

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The Calculator allows you to pick your own 2050 Pathway and compare it with those from others  Over 20 000 people submitted their preferred My2050 worlds to DECC  My2050 has had over 100 000 unique users (Average engagement time is 15 minutes).  Next to the 2050 Pathways from HMG, Pathways from different organisations are published on the webtool , such as: o Friends of the Earth o Campaign to Protect Rural England o National Grid o Atkins o Journalists  DECC Blog discussion between experts and the public  Excel spreadsheet used in several academic and research studies to test different assumptions 5


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2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK
How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy Domestic Engagement and International Collaboration

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Climate Change Act 2008 sets out a clear legal framework for emissions reductions in the UK

 Ambitious targets to reduce emissions
 Legally binding carbon budgets and 2050 target  A clear accountability framework MRV / CCC reports to Parliament

The Climate Change Act triggered a long term low carbon strategy; culminating in the Carbon Plan (December 2011) Before DECC Government’s approach was fragmented and didn’t sufficiently recognise the interdependencies between climate change and energy policy December 2010: Cancun

December 2011: Durban

November 2009: Copenhagen

2008: Climate Change Act introduced legally binding carbon budgets and aim to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050

July 2009: Low Carbon Transition Plan; October 1st, 2nd and 3rd 2008: Carbon Budgets set DECC created

May 2010: General election PM announces intention to be ‘Greenest Government ever’

December 2011: 2011: Carbon Plan; Green Deal 4th Carbon announced; Budget set; 2050 Futures Reform or published electricity generation market

DECC’s strategy works to head off two risks:

• Catastrophic climate change
• Failure of secure, safe and affordable energy supplies for the UK 8

Carbon Budgets ensure that the UK will reduce emissions by 34% by 2020 and 50% by Carbon Budget 4

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Using the 2050 Calculator, HMG published four ‘2050 Futures’ in the Carbon Plan

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2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK
How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy Domestic Engagement and International Collaboration

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Domestically we are looking at refining the Pathways analysis and using it for public engagement

Refining the 2050 Calculator: • Recently incorporated costs and air quality into Calculator • Historical data will be published soon • Plans to incorporate water and biodiversity Extending the outreach: • My2050 simulation rolled out to schools and universities and public opinion testing • The My2050 schools toolkit launched in December 2011. This helps students explore individual, community and national changes needed to tackle climate change; • 2050 Picture competition with National Geographic for Kids

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Internationally we are looking at outreach opportunities

Supporting other regions and countries in adopting the 2050 Calculator approach • The 2050 Calculator can be readily adapted for use by other countries. This approach is already gaining momentum and we hope to see more countries joining this...
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