The data that I have been given to investigate is quarterly data from 1996 to 2007. The long term trend of how much electricity is used has steadily increased. The gradient of the trend line is 45.36 GWH per quarter. This means that the amount of electricity increased by each year is 180 GWH. This is because the amount of goods that need electricity to work has increased and we are becoming more reliant on electricity. Also the population in New Zealand is increasing meaning more people using electricity which will cause it to increase.
The quarterly pattern in the data is that it is always lowest in the March quarter. It then steadily increased in the June quarter with the highest amount used in the September quarter. It then steadily falls for the December quarter. The March quarter is the lowest quarter it is on average 580 GWH below the normal amount of electricity used. This is because the March quarter also includes January and February months and they are the hottest months in New Zealand. This means that people maybe using their BBQ’s instead of the stove, not have as many showers and are outside a lot during the day therefore less electricity used. September is the highest quarter it is on average 698 GWH above the normal amount of electricity used. This is because it includes the months July and August these months are our coldest months. As it is so cold outside people will be having more showers, cooking more hot meals, using heaters and staying inside during the day using lots of electric appliances.
In this data there are two main spikes. The data for June 98 is higher than the September 98 this doesn’t follow the seasonal trend. These two should swap around and then would correctly follow the pattern. This may have happened because the June quarter was very cold so more electricity was used than normal and then had to cut back on electricity in the September quarter as they had used too much in June quarter. The other spike is September 01 it I... [continues]
The quarterly pattern in the data is that it is always lowest in the March quarter. It then steadily increased in the June quarter with the highest amount used in the September quarter. It then steadily falls for the December quarter. The March quarter is the lowest quarter it is on average 580 GWH below the normal amount of electricity used. This is because the March quarter also includes January and February months and they are the hottest months in New Zealand. This means that people maybe using their BBQ’s instead of the stove, not have as many showers and are outside a lot during the day therefore less electricity used. September is the highest quarter it is on average 698 GWH above the normal amount of electricity used. This is because it includes the months July and August these months are our coldest months. As it is so cold outside people will be having more showers, cooking more hot meals, using heaters and staying inside during the day using lots of electric appliances.
In this data there are two main spikes. The data for June 98 is higher than the September 98 this doesn’t follow the seasonal trend. These two should swap around and then would correctly follow the pattern. This may have happened because the June quarter was very cold so more electricity was used than normal and then had to cut back on electricity in the September quarter as they had used too much in June quarter. The other spike is September 01 it I... [continues]
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