Effect of Global Crises on Indian Economy

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The credit crunch
The global financial crisis (GFC) or global economic crisis is commonly believed to have begun in July 2007 with the credit crunch, when a loss of confidence by US investors in the value of sub-prime mortgages caused a liquidity crisis. This, in turn, resulted in the US Federal Bank injecting a large amount of capital into financial markets. By September 2008, the crisis had worsened as stock markets around the globe crashed and became highly volatile. Consumer confidence hit rock bottom as everyone tightened their belts in fear of what could lie ahead. The sub-prime crisis that started in 2007 and limited to the US economy has created systemic problem throughout the global financial system following the collapse of a big investment bank. The real economic impact of this financial turmoil is expected to be very large. It has been officially stated that developed economies such as the US and the European Union are entering a recessionary phase. Even the world economic growth has been predicted to decline. The impact of this financial crisis on India is also going to be significant, as India is not decoupled with the global macroeconomic behaviour. The service sector, of which two sectors namely ‘trade, hotels group’ and the ‘financing, insurance group’, growth is strongly linked with the global economy. Hence, any decline in the global economic activity is expected to have adverse impact on the domestic services growth. On inflation front, this crisis indeed brought down the inflationary expectations as it led to decline in the world oil prices to around US$ 70 per barrel after reaching a peak of US$ 142 in July. This would have positive impact on the domestic economy through reduction in overall interest rate structure, which could stimulate domestic demand. On the external sector front, we might see a fall in the foreign exchange reserves due to outflow of short-term capital in the short term. Together with this, predicted fall in exports...
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