Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture

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DIPLOMA THESIS Linking Climate Change with Food Security in the highlands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Northwest Pakistan

Presented by:

Martin Kienzler

Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg
Faculty of Philosophy I Institute of Geography and Geology
Physical Geography

DIPLOMA THESIS Linking Climate Change with Food Security in the highlands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Northwest Pakistan Presented by Martin Kienzler, born on June, 25th 1985 in Titisee-Neustadt

to obtain the degree of

DIPLOMGEOGRAPH
(Dipl.-Geogr.)

Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Heiko Paeth, University of Würzburg 2nd Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Ulrike Müller-Böker, University of Zurich

February 16th, 2012

Martin Kienzler Friedrichstr. 15 D - 97082 Würzburg mail: nitramus@gmx.de phone: +49 (0) 176 20797665

Acknowledgments
This thesis could not have been accomplished successfully without the numerous people who supported me in different ways. First of all I want to thank Prof. Dr. Ulrike Müller-Böker, who enabled me to work on this topic and supported me in conducting the field trip to Pakistan in the frame of the NCCR North-South project (RP2). Specials thanks go to Prof. Dr. Heiko Paeth for supervising my thesis and answering numerous questions. I would like to appreciate the help of all the colleagues at the Department of Physical Geography, first of all Birgit Mannig, who patiently helped me out of the jungle of programming a thousand times. I would like to express a special thanks to Dr. Babar Shahbaz for welcoming me warmly in Islamabad and Faisalabad and the steady correspondence as well as the staff of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), especially Dr. Abid Suleri, Taliman and Nazim Ali for technical and logistical support, long discussions and an enjoyable time at the office. Thank you to Maaz Ismail, who helped me to understand the farmers of Kaghan valley and secured a pleasant stay within the Himalayan mountains. Kaiser Turi, thank you so much for attending me through all of northern Pakistan for weeks and for translating the numerous discussions in Chitral. As well I want to thank all the farmers of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa who received me generously and for the endless cups of black tea. I want to thank all of you for making my trip to Pakistan unforgettable! My most special thanks go to my parents who supported me whenever they could and helped to arouse my fascination of the farthest countries and mountains of the world and always encouraged me when I went to explore them - Thank you! I also want to thank my friends for the neverending time of studying and travelling around the world. Anna, thank you for withstanding all the time I spent in the remote mountains of Pakistan!

I

Abstract
The diploma thesis “Linking climate change with food security in the highlands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Northwest Pakistan” is embedded in the research project “Livelihood Futures in Resource-scarce Areas”, being part of the NCCR North-South project (RP2). Aim of the study primarily is the analysis of the characteristics of climate change in the region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) between 1901 and 2009 and the prediction of possible future changes until the end of the 21st century. Statistical trend analysis of a global gridded observation dataset (CRU) as well as of the output of a regional climate model (REMO) with a higher horizontal resolution is applied. For comparison the data of 13 meteorological stations of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is consulted. As a secondary data source qualitative interviews with farmers are used. The perception of the local population concerning climate change shall help to validate the results of the climate analysis and reveal if there already occur changes in agriculture, which can be related to climate change. The following results are obtained through trend analysis of the two data sets: Both compositions show a slight warming trend of annual mean temperatures over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)....
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